With College GameDay in town, Utah hosts Houston in a Top 25 matchup at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN).
The Utes are 6.5-point home favorites, and my Houston vs. Utah predictions and college football picks expect Devon Dampier to expose a struggling Cougars defense.
Houston vs Utah predictions
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Early Houston vs Utah spread pick: Utah -6.5
Though Utah is coming off a shaky road win against Colorado, I think this is a huge letdown spot for Houston, and I like the Utes to cover up to -9.5 at home in front of a ravenous crowd.
The Cougars just won a ranked matchup in a shootout against Oklahoma State, a game in which their defense gave up 499 total yards (8.5 yards per play) and allowed 29 second-half points. Houston, we have a problem with your defense, and Utah will surely expose it.
Willie Fritz's defense ranks 111th nationally in net EPA per play, 115th in EPA per pass, and 107th in early-down EPA per play. That's not going to fly against Utes QB Devon Dampier, who has Utah ranked 14th in the country in available yards percentage (59.4%).
But it's Morgan Scalley's defense that should really make the difference against Houston. Utah's defense ranks sixth nationally in success rate allowed (36.9%) and top 20 in points per opportunity allowed (2.73).
That bend-but-don't-break ability will be huge against a Houston attack that relies heavily on explosive passing plays.
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Early Houston vs Utah total pick: Over 56.5
Houston is 5-2 to the Over this season because the Cougars have one of the most explosive offenses in the country and a defense that's one of the worst in the Power Four at stopping the pass. With this high-end QB matchup between Dampier and Conner Weigman, I'd play the Over at 57.5 or better.
In four games against offenses ranked in the top 25 by SP+, Houston has hit the Over three times. Utah's offense is ranked No. 11 by SP+, No. 17 in offensive success rate (49.3%), and No. 14 in points per opportunity (4.80).
But Houston has the firepower to fight back and help the Over hit against a strong Utah defense. The Cougars are No. 1 nationally in offensive success rate (54.6%), have two of the top five wide receivers in explosive plays (Trent Walker and Amare Thomas), and Weigman ranks fourth in the country in QBR (87.7).
Utah ranks ninth in the country in yards per game (486.5) and eighth in points per game (40.2), while Houston ranks 10th in yards per game (485.1) and 13th in points per game (39.3). Get ready for offensive fireworks after dark.
Houston vs Utah odds
- Houston vs Utah spread: Utah -6.5
- Houston vs Utah moneyline: Houston 32%, Utah 68%
- Houston vs Utah Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch Houston vs Utah
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, 10:15 p.m. ET
- City: Salt Lake City
- Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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