This week we get an intriguing matchup between the South Florida Bulls and UTSA Roadrunners. Both teams enter at 4-1 as I make my South Florida vs. UTSA prediction.
My college football picks expect the Roadrunners to deliver the Bulls' first true test of the season, as South Florida has played a relatively easy schedule until now.
It all kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
TOP PICK
Who will win South Florida vs UTSA: UTSA -7.5
It's the UTSA Roadrunners or nothing for me in this spot, mostly because there are few battle wounds this South Florida Bulls team has needed to endure. Sure, it's coming off a tough loss to Temple, which has at least played Penn State. But the Bulls’ schedule has Easy Street written all over it.
Meanwhile, the Roadrunners played Texas one week before the Longhorns faced Tennessee, giving UTSA a useful test to prepare for the rest of the season. Plus, they took down a very solid Texas State team that also put up nearly 350 total yards against Texas in Week 1.
In addition to the strength-of-schedule concerns, the Bulls don't rely much at all on their passing game while attempting only 25.2 passes per outing, which ranks 124th in the country. Only 42.6% of their plays are through the air. So if they're going to play from behind, as the spread is alluding to here, will South Florida be efficient enough to move the ball downfield? I doubt it, as the Roadrunners are 77th in the country in passing yards allowed per game.
Do not take this number higher than it is right now. Try to find the key number of -6.5 or -7 if possible, but I still approve of -7.5.
COVERS INTEL: South Florida has leaned so heavily on the run that the team is still waiting to throw its first interception of the season. That could spell trouble for a school likely to be playing from behind.
South Florida vs UTSA Over/Under pick: Over 49.5
People will likely see that the Bulls are 10th in points allowed per game and instantly lean toward the Under. But again, who have they played? Oh, Delaware State, Florida International, and Army. Their opponents are a combined 10-14 this season.
This matchup screams wakeup call for a USF team that has yet to face a test. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners will try to run the ball down the throat of a defense that's faced little pushback since playing Army, a team with only a ground attack. UTSA leans slightly more on its run game than the school's air attack, running the ball an average of 33.8 times per game.
UTSA's run defense is the squad's most significant weakness, as it's allowing 198.8 yards per game this season. However, most of that number is inflated from playing Texas State and Texas. I still expect this game to feature points, with the Roadrunners able to take care of business on their end.
South Florida vs UTSA combo
If you combine all three of those picks above, you get a cool, crisp 4.71x. That's a solid price for getting in and out of the first half with the team you already like to cover the full game, all while rooting for points, points, points.
South Florida vs UTSA combo (4.71x)
- UTSA -7.5
- Over 49.5
- UTSA 1H -4.5
- 2026 Season: 36-29, +7.7 units
South Florida vs UTSA odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: South Florida +7.5 | UTSA -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (52%) | Under 49.5 (48%)
- Moneyline: South Florida 29% | UTSA 71%
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South Florida vs UTSA weather
The Game will be played indoors at the Alamodome.
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South Florida vs UTSA trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Roadrunners' last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. Find more college football betting trends for South Florida vs. UTSA.
How to watch South Florida vs UTSA
| Location | Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
South Florida vs UTSA latest injuries
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