MLB Home Run Props & Predictions Today: Best HR Picks & Parlay for Oct. 7

Dustin Saracini -  - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Dustin Saracini • Betting Analyst 14+ years betting experience
Updated: Oct 7, 2026 , 11:50 AM ET • 4 min read

When Freddie Freeman gets going, he's an incredibly difficult out, and we're getting him in the middle of a hot streak. Let's invest in him and Miguel Vargas to go yard.

Freddie Freeman Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - Reuters Connect - Freddie Freeman stands at first base.

What's better than a handful of elimination games? Profiting on 'em with our best home run props across a high-stakes four-game slate today.

I'm targeting a handful of big names to get the job done under the bright lights. Tap into my MLB player props on our MLB picks page for Wednesday, Oct. 7, and let's stay hot this postseason.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR Probability
White Sox Miguel Vargas 16%
Dodgers Freddie Freeman 13%
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Home run prediction: Miguel Vargas

The man with 33 regular-season long balls hasn't hit one in the playoffs, but he's in a great spot to do so this afternoon at home against a pitcher Miguel Vargas has been enjoying some success against.

The Cleveland Guardians are turning to Daniel Espino to open, and he's a largely unproven commodity with just 15.1 innings under his belt this year. Now he's coming into the Thunderdome, as Rate Field hasn't hosted a postseason game in four years and will undoubtedly be a tough place to pitch.

Vargas, who has logged two at-bats against Espino, has already gone deep against him and is money at home, owning an .887 OPS. If he's going to hit a bomb, now would be the time.

  • Time: 4 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: TBS

Home run prediction: Freddie Freeman

Good ol' reliable Freddie Freeman, welcome back to our home run props. Freeman has clubbed a dinger in consecutive games and is 8-for-19 hitting with a double and a home run (.292 xBA, .506 xSLG) against Tyler Mahle.

That puts us in a great position to cash this trade. His splits are the cherry on top, as Freddie mashes righties to the tune of a .850 OPS. That'll play.

When Freeman gets going, he's an incredibly difficult out, and we're getting him in the middle of a hot streak. Let's ride with him and cash a big one.

  • Time: 6 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FOX Sports
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  • HR picks: 0-0, +0.0 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Dustin Saracini
Betting Analyst

Dustin Saracini is a betting analyst at Covers with over 14 years of experience in the sports betting industry. Throughout his career, Dustin has hosted multiple betting shows- breaking down NBA, NFL, PGA, and MLB markets alongside top handicappers - and has appeared as a Super Bowl consultant for CNN. A disciplined daily bettor who extensively line-shops across FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars, his sharpest edges lie in MLB and the NFL (followed closely by the NHL and NBA). A self-proclaimed NRFI guru targeting his second straight +10u MLB season, Dustin holds a Broadcast Journalism degree from Western University (2014). For daily picks, market strategies, and insights, follow him on X (Twitter) @DustinSaracini.

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