The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the road for the first time in four weeks with backup quarterback Jalon Daniels under center, visiting the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday Night Football.
My Bucs vs. Cowboys predictions measure the opening odds and initial movement for this short week showdown, giving you my early leans and NFL picks.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Buccaneers vs Cowboys spread pick: Bucs +9.5
Short weeks often breed weirdo results. Asking the Dallas Cowboys defense to keep the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 points away is a tall order. And given early market movement, we’ll likely be dealing with a +10.5 very soon.
Tampa has a backup QB in Jalon Daniels at the wheel, but he showed he could at least do damage with his legs in his Week 4 start versus Green Bay. The Cowboys have been shredded by dual-threat QBs in 2026, allowing the most rushing yards to the position.
Throw some RB Bucky Irving into the mix, and the Bucs can bully a shoddy Cowboys run stop. Dallas is 28th in rushing yards allowed per carry.
While Tampa Bay is 0-4, those losses have come by a combined 20 points. I’m leaning toward the Bucs as big dogs but would like to wait and see how big this spread goes by Thursday night.
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Early Buccaneers vs Cowboys total pick: Over 47.5
The Cowboys' offense is on a historic pace. Through four games, Dallas is averaging the fifth highest points per drive since 2000 and naturally has gone Over the total in each of those outings.
This potent pass game faces a Buccaneers secondary nursing injuries on a short week. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison sat out Week 4 and fellow CB Antoine Winfield Jr. was in rough shape after the loss to the Packers.
Put this Thursday night outing inside AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys are 33-17-1 Over/Under since 2020 (66% Overs), and I’m leaning Over.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys spread: Cowboys -9.5
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys moneyline: Buccaneers 17%, Cowboys 83%
- Buccaneers vs Cowboys Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Buccaneers vs Cowboys
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Arlington, TX
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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