I have no faith in San Diego Padres right-hander Walker Buehler, so it doesn't really matter who the Milwaukee Brewers send to counter him tonight.
My Brewers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks back Milwaukee to come out firing, punching its ticket to the NLDS, while exorcising some road playoff demons on Wednesday, Oct. 7.
First pitch comes your way at 10 p.m. ET at San Diego's Petco Park on FS1.
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Brewers vs Padres prediction: Brewers moneyline
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I don't care who the Milwaukee Brewers start on the mound. Take them on the moneyline to 54%.
San Diego Padres right-hander Walker Buehler was once an ace-in-waiting. From 2018-21, he went 39-13 with a 2.82 ERA and 620 strikeouts in 564 innings, culminating in an All-Star campaign in 2021 when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting (arguably should have finished higher).
Okay, so what does that have to do with the price of tea in China? Well, after elbow issues cut his 2022 season short and wiped out 2023, he just hasn't been the same pitcher. Obviously, when a hurler returns from Tommy John surgery, a little leeway is given after returning. But we have enough data now.
Before surgery, Buehler routinely sat between 95-97 mph on his fastball. Since returning, he's around 94. It's no real surprise, then, that his strikeout rate has gone from 26-30% in those early Dodger seasons to 16-20% since.
The Brewers haven't named a starter, so the advantage over Buehler is this prediction's primary angle. Buehler doesn't miss bats like he used to. He's not hurt, either. He tossed 153 2/3 innings this year, a post-surgery high. This is just who he is now.
Buehler last pitched on Sept. 26, allowing four runs (three earned) in 3 2/3 innings against the Diamondbacks. Rust could be a factor, but so, too, could fatigue. Logging more innings than he has in years may have taken a toll, but the innings he did put out there weren't exactly top-shelf, either. He allowed 22 home runs (tied for 19th among starters who threw 150+ innings) and finished with a 4.67 ERA (eighth-highest in that split).
The Brewers have lost 12 straight road playoff games dating back to 2018, but that's exactly the kind of nonsense trend that gets trotted out like it's more meaningful than it really is, right, Christian Yelich?
Christian Yelich on the Brewers' 12-game postseason losing streak, which dates to Game 4 of the 2018 NLDS: “I mean, this team has one person playing from 2018. So that really has no effect on this group.”
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) October 7, 2026
COVERS INTEL: Buehler's chase rate (72nd percentile) and whiff rate (51st) in 2021 have dropped precipitously, sitting in the 13th and 8th percentiles, respectively, in 2026. Yes, he throws a kitchen-sink arsenal, but that won't matter when they're all so hittable.
Brewers vs Padres combo
The theme of the day remains: fade Buehler.
The Brewers converted only three runs from their 11 hits and four walks on Tuesday night. That's anomalous. Even if the Padres get Mason Miller back from the paternity list, the damage will be done early enough on Buehler to render the closer's availability moot.
Maybe Buehler has a quick hook attached, but not until after at least a couple of runs cross.
Jackson Chourio's 0.91 BABIP and 7.1% strikeout rate through three games in this series tell us that he's at least somewhat unlucky, and I like the leadoff man to do early damage vs. Buehler.
Brewers vs Padres combo
- Brewers moneyline
- Brewers team total Over 3.5
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases
Brewers vs Padres home run prediction: William Contreras
Going back to the well with William Contreras, who already has two home runs this postseason, may seem risky, but he's the man for the job.
Lefties may have hit Buehler more effectively overall (.273 average), but right-handed hitters slugged slightly better (.421 to .417). Contreras had a fine if underwhelming regular season, but he has come to play in October, hitting .364/.462/.909 with two long balls and a 263 wRC+ in 13 plate appearances.
That's a small sample size, but I like the price and would take him to 17%.
- ML/RL: 10-5, +6.17 units
- Combos: 7-8, -2.08 units
Brewers vs Padres weather
Petco Park is expected to play to its season-long norms as weather is not expected to be a factor, per Ballpark Pal. Clear skies, some wind in from left field, with temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s.
Brewers vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 49% | Padres 52%
- Run line: Brewers +1.5 (68%) | Padres -1.5 (33%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (51%) | Under 7.5 (50%)
Brewers vs Padres trend
The Brewers have hit the team total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.25 Units / 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres.
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How to watch Brewers vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, Calif. |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Brewers starting pitcher | TBD |
| Padres starting pitcher | Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.63 ERA) |
Brewers vs Padres latest injuries
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