The Dallas Cowboys host the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 7.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football, with kickoff coming at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video from AT&T Stadium.
My Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction headlines this week’s NFL picks, and with Dallas turning almost every game into a shootout, I’m backing another Over with the total sitting at 47.5.
TOP Pick
Buccaneers vs Cowboys prediction: Over 47.5
The Dallas Cowboys have cashed 10 straight Overs, averaging 58.2 combined points, and are 17-4 to the Over since last season began. I’m not standing in front of that!
This season’s 4-0 Over run averages 58.5 combined points, with the last two games reaching the 60s.
This Cowboys offense averages 30.5 points and should do the heavy lifting, while their horrendous defense will provide plenty of opportunities for this underwhelming Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense.
Dallas’ defense ranks dead last in yards allowed per play, 31st on third down and in explosive play rate allowed, and 27th in the red zone. They are, quite simply, the perfect Over team.
While it's fair to be nervous about this Tampa Bay offense contributing, keep in mind C.J. Stroud just had one of the best games of his career against this Dallas defense. Play the Over up to 49.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Texans torched this Dallas defense for 7.6 yards per play on Sunday. To put that in perspective, the league-leading 49ers average 6.8 yards per play.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys combo
I expect Dallas to win comfortably and pile up points against a pitiful Tampa Bay team that’s failed to cover in 13 straight games.
The Cowboys rank near the top of the league in many key offensive categories such as third-down conversion percentage and red-zone touchdown conversion percentage, which has led to plenty of points, but their defense remains one of the worst in the NFL.
Jalon Daniels is the confirmed starter, filling in for the injured Baker Mayfield. His passing volume completes the picture. He attempted 27 passes in last week’s 17-14 loss to Green Bay, and I expect the Buccaneers to be playing catch-up for the majority of the game.
If Dallas builds the lead I’m anticipating, Tampa Bay will have to be more aggressive and throw the ball. The Cowboys’ defense should also help extend possessions, giving Daniels more opportunities to reach the 28 attempts we need.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys combo
- Cowboys -7.5
- Over 47.5
- Jalon Daniels Over 27.5 pass attempts
Buccaneers vs Cowboys touchdown scorer: Jalon Daniels
Daniels was eager to take off in his first NFL start, rushing eight times for 55 yards against Green Bay. Dallas has already surrendered a league-high 188 rushing yards to quarterbacks, so there should be room for him to create with his legs. The Cowboys also rank 27th in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed.
A scramble or designed keeper near the goal line gives the rookie a path to scoring his first career rushing touchdown.
- Top picks: 2-2, -0.2 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.0 units
Buccaneers vs Cowboys odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Buccaneers +7.5 | Cowboys -7.5
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (51%) | Under 47.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers 21% | Cowboys 79%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys weather
The current forecast calls for mostly clear skies and approximately 83°F around the 7:15 p.m. local kickoff in Arlington, with AT&T Stadium’s retractable roof offering protection if needed.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys trend to know
The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Cowboys
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Buccaneers vs Cowboys latest injuries
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