South Florida vs UTSA Picks & Props
USF vs UTSA Picks
NCAAF PicksSouth Florida is the fourth-lowest scoring team in college football, averaging just FOUR points, while UTSA ranks 47th in first-half scoring at more than 15 points per game. I expect the Roadrunners to cover 4.5 points, but if that wonky number worries you, take UTSA to win the first half.
Don’t let South Florida’s top-10 scoring defense fool you, as the Bulls have faced a soft schedule. This matchup should be a wake-up call against a Roadrunners offense that can attack on the ground. While UTSA’s run defense has been vulnerable, much of that damage came against Texas and Texas State.
UTSA has faced a significantly tougher schedule and should be better prepared for this matchup. South Florida’s limited passing attack could become a major issue if the Bulls fall behind, especially against a Roadrunners defense allowing just 39th-most passing yards nationally.
With South Florida being as bad on offense as it is good on defense, this is an easy Under. Three of USF's five games failed to get past 30 total points, with the Bulls allowing just 14 points per game (10th) and ranking 29th in opponent yards per play. Meanwhile, the offense has been disastrous, ranking well into the 100s in scoring offense, total offense, and yards per play, while also being 109th in seconds per play. UTSA (82nd in yards per play) isn't much better on offense, either.
Comboing all three of those picks above, you get a cool, crisp 4.71x, which is a solid price for getting in and out of the first half with the team you already like to cover the full game, while rooting for points, points, points.
USF vs UTSA Consensus Picks
USF vs UTSA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
USF
M. Van Buren Jr.
(QB)
o185.5 Passing Yards
195.20 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.7
DIFFERENCE
25.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
USF
D. Crowther
(RB)
o87.5 Rushing Yards
96.44 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.9
DIFFERENCE
23.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UTSA
O. McCown
(QB)
o12.5 Rushing Yards
13.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
15.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UTSA
W. Henderson III
(RB)
o80.5 Rushing Yards
84.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTSA
A. Wilson
(WR)
o46.5 Receiving Yards
54.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.7
DIFFERENCE
24.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTSA
D. Amador II
(WR)
o44.5 Receiving Yards
53.57 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.1
DIFFERENCE
23.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
USF
J. Porter
(WR)
o43.5 Receiving Yards
49.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
20.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UTSA
M. Anderson
(WR)
o45.5 Receiving Yards
45.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
USF
B. Rodgers
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-6.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UTSA
O. McCown
(QB)
o5.5 Carries
6.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
5.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UTSA
W. Henderson III
(RB)
o15.5 Carries
15.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-27.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
USF
M. Van Buren Jr.
(QB)
o13.5 Completions
16.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.9
DIFFERENCE
19.82%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Roadrunners are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
Over is 5-0-1 in Roadrunners last 6 games as a home underdog.
Over is 5-0-1 in Bulls last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Roadrunners last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Roadrunners last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
ROI Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.