The fans in Lubbock will be happy to finally get a home game as the Texas Tech Red Raiders welcome the Kansas Jayhawks to town on Saturday night.
It’s been nearly a month since Texas Tech defeated Oregon State at Jones AT&T Stadium, but two straight quality wins on the road have the program ranked inside the Top 10. The Jayhawks have won just twice in 25 meetings with the Red Raiders, and hope Jalon Daniels can lead them to an upset win.
My Kansas vs. Texas Tech predictions and free college football picks for Saturday, October 11 explain why Caleb Douglas should put on a show.
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Kansas vs Texas Tech prediction
Kansas vs Texas Tech best bet: Caleb Douglas Over 67.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Kansas Jayhawks rank 90th in EPA/pass defensively, are allowing one of the highest explosive pass rates in college football, and allowed a combined 722 passing yards to Cincinnati and Missouri.
Caleb Douglas has to be itching to get on the field on Saturday night. The Texas Tech Red Raiders receiver is averaging nearly 19 yards a catch. And despite having just 12 catches, his 21 targets are tied for second-most on the team.
But he’s stepped up in conference play. After just seven catches in the first three games, he caught four passes for 68 yards against Utah, and then hauled in seven for 14 yards last week against Houston.
Douglas has three straight games with at least 68 receiving yards, and both Cincinnati and Missouri saw two receivers go for 70+ in their games with the Jayhawks. They’re allowing an average of three catches for 20+ yards per game, and Douglas already has grabs of 33+ in three straight games.
In addition to Douglas, they must keep tabs on leading pass-catcher Reggie Virgil as well as Coy Eakin. Last week, Eakin caught 10 passes against Houston a week ago, and he leads the team in receiving yards.
Texas Tech runs 2.6% less than expected, and the Jayhawks haven’t done poorly against the run. Toss in the injury concerns in the Kansas secondary, and we should see the Red Raiders going to the air early and often with Douglas benefitting plenty.
Kansas vs Texas Tech same-game parlay
Texas Tech’s defense has allowed the ninth-lowest passing completion rate in college football. And if you only include Power 5 opponents, the Red Raiders still rank Top 15 with opponents connecting on just 55% of their throws.
Jalon Daniels hasn’t hit this passing total in three of his last four games, and this Red Raider defense will be the best he’s faced. He will be forced to use his legs a fair amount, which will also help keep him under his total.
Speaking of totals, Texas Tech is going to follow in the footsteps of the Bearcats and Tigers and put up big numbers against this Kansas defense. It’s not a coincidence those are the two best offenses the Jayhawks have faced, and they each scored 37 or more.
The Red Raiders will get past that number in their first home game in almost a month.
Kansas vs Texas Tech SGP
- Caleb Douglas Over 67.5 receiving yards
- Jalon Daniels Under 236.5 passing yards
- Texas Tech team total Over 37.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Lights, Cameron, action
Cameron Dickey has scored a touchdown in all five games for Texas Tech. He also scored the opening touchdown of the game against both Utah and Houston.
Kansas vs Texas Tech SGP
- Caleb Douglas Over 67.5 receiving yards
- Jalon Daniels Under 236.5 passing yards
- Texas Tech team total Over 37.5
- Cameron Dickey first touchdown scorer
Kansas vs Texas Tech odds
- Spread: Kansas +14.5 | Texas Tech -14.5
- Moneyline: Kansas +460 | Texas Tech -620
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Kansas vs Texas Tech trend to know
Texas Tech is 6-2 ATS in its last eight overall. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas vs Texas Tech.
How to watch Kansas vs Texas Tech
| Location | Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX |
| Date | Saturday, October 11, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV |
FOX |
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