We have a terrific Big 12 matchup for ESPN’s featured Saturday After Dark showdown when the Iowa State Cyclones battle the BYU Cougars at Lavell Edwards Stadium.
College football odds favor Iowa State by as many as eight points. Both sides need one more win for bowl eligibility, and we expect a competitive and exciting contest to close Week 11.
Keep reading as I analyze the betting angles and give my best free college football picks for Iowa State vs. BYU on Saturday, November 11.
Iowa State vs BYU best odds
Iowa State vs BYU picks and predictions
This matchup is a tough one: neither group is going to win the Big 12 but both teams reach bowl eligibility with a victory, and we should expect a hard-fought contest.
The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off a tough home loss to Kansas they probably should have won. The Cyclones allowed one TD in each quarter, but frosh quarterback Rocco Becht failed to throw at least one TD pass for the first time this season.
Instead, Becht threw a pick-six, the rushing attack scampered for just 75 yards, and the Iowa State offense did nothing special offensively in a 27-20 loss.
This isn’t the BYU Cougars defense of the old days when teams came into Provo with high hopes, only to be derailed by a stout BYU defense. This version is in the bottom half of the conference in rushing and passing defense and allows nearly 28 points per game.
BYU isn’t the offensive juggernaut some had hoped for when quarterback Kedon Slovis joined the team via the transfer portal. Slovis has had five multiple-touchdown games and a pair of multi-interception contests.
The senior signal-caller missed last week with an arm injury but is listed in the team's game notes as the starter, and that’s a good thing for the Over and a bad thing for the Cyclones defense.
Iowa State may allow 21 points per game, but Slovis and the BYU offense should be able to contribute to this total. The Cyclones surrendered 18 points to a bad Baylor offense and 50 points to Oklahoma in Norman.
Finally, we have two teams with the same goal: bowl eligibility. Nothing else matters to these two groups — both offenses need to score the football, and I anticipate both signal-callers to have successful passing days.
Neither offense has much of a ground game, so expect both quarterbacks to throw the ball often and be successful enough for this contest to get Over the total.
My best bet: Over 41.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Iowa State vs BYU same-game parlay
Over 41.5
BYU first-half ML
Iowa State TT Over 24.5
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I expect a higher-scoring game than the number indicates and have explained why.
I fully expect Slovis to suit up, and if he does, the BYU offense will score the football. Slovis may have his detractors, but he makes things happen and will come out firing at home one way or another.
BYU averages slightly more first-half points than Iowa State and +220 on BYU winning the first half is worth a look considering they're 4-0 SU in the first half at home this season.
ISU will have to push 30 points if it wants to win this game. BYU averages 26 ppg at home I feel they'll play well with Slovis under center. The Cougars surrender 13 points per game but have allowed 20.5 in two Big 12 home games.
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Iowa State vs BYU spread and Over/Under analysis
FanDuel opened BYU moneyline at +156, but that number has shifted to +250. That move was likely due to the uncertainty surrounding Slovis. I expect the closing line to be much closer to the opener once Slovis’s status for this contest becomes official.
For the same reason the moneyline moved, so did the spread. FanDuel opened at +4.5 (-110), and that number ballooned to +7.5 (-114). I wanted no part of +7.5 (-114) when +8 (-110) was available elsewhere, including Caesars and BetMGM.
On top of loving the Over 41.5, Pinnacle is at 42 and I expect the rest of the market to follow suit, giving us some closing line value.
I’m leaning toward taking a chance on BYU ML at +250. The Cougars are undefeated at home, and Slovis dressing should give the offense the lift it needs to outscore Iowa State.
Iowa State vs BYU betting trend to know
BYU has cashed the first-half moneyline in all four home games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs BYU.
Iowa State vs BYU game info
| Location: | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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