The mid-week MACtion matchups come to a close tonight when the Bowling Green Falcons meet the Western Michigan Broncos in the conference finale for both schools.
Bowling Green is bowl-eligible and hopes that a victory will help its chances of evelating it's bowl game. Meanwhile, Western Michigan fell short of a postseason bowl invitation, and college football odds have listed it as a short home underdog.
Join me as I break it all down and give my best free college football picks for Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan on Tuesday, November 21.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan best odds
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan picks and predictions
Bowling Green has had an interesting 2023 campaign. It clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago at Kent State, has one of the better defenses in the country, yet is 6-5 on the season.
The Falcons' 6-5 record could be a bit misleading, however. BG didn’t shy away from anyone this season and, as a result, faced undefeated teams Liberty and Michigan, whipped Georgia Tech in Atlanta, and fell one point shy from a home upset over Toledo in Week 11.
Bowling Green allowed 24.7 points or more in only five of its 11 games this season: Liberty, Michigan, Ohio, Miami (OH), and Toledo all exceeded the average. Those five losses were also to schools with exceptional defenses, so it takes an exceptional offense with a stout defense to beat the Falcons.
The Western Michigan Broncos have a pretty good offense, but their defense is lacking, which will hurt them Tuesday night.
Western Michigan does seem to play better at Waldo Stadium. The Broncos have scored more than their 24.9-point average in three of their four home matchups. The lone time they didn’t was to Miami (OH), a team with a sound defense and an above-average offense to match,,, similar to their opponent this week.
Bowling Green is a short favorite Tuesday, and rather than lay the -1.5-2.0 points the bookmakers want me to, I like the Falcons to win this game straight up.
Bowling Green has all it needs to beat Western on Tuesday night. It plays robust defense with a good enough offense led by quarterback Connor Bazelak, running back Terion Stewart, and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. to outscore the Broncos.
Finally, one day, WMU will be a good and maybe even a great MAC team, but right now, it has a difficult time defeating teams that play good defense and can also find the end zone. The Falcons fit that bill to a tee, have a winning away record, and will win over Western Michigan on Tuesday night.
My best bet: Bowling Green moneyline (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan same-game parlay
There's a reason why I didn’t lay the points, which is why I’ve chosen the Over for the second leg.
Western has had difficulties scoring the football at times this season, but those issues lessen at home. The Broncos average 23.9 points per game, but that average jumps to 33.7 when playing at Waldo Stadium. I don’t see the Broncos scoring that many points Tuesday, but if they can score at least 21 points — and they likely will — this game will end Over the total.
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Bowling Green vs Western Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
FanDuel offered Western -1.5 (-102), and that number has moved to Western Michigan +1.5 (-115). The -1.5 (-115) isn’t the best number available, either. DraftKings has +2.0 (-110) and some offshore bookmakers have +2.5 (-110).
The total opened Over 53.5 (-110) and has remained with the same vig at FanDuel for the Under as well. The other major U.S. bookmakers offer 54.5 on their boards, with vig ranging from -105 at ESPN Bet to -112 at BetRivers for the Over. The Under 54.5 has vig anywhere from -108 at DraftKings to -115 at ESPN Bet.
Bowling Green vs Western Michigan betting trend to know
Bowling Green has hit the moneyline in three of its last six away games (+8.50 Units / 93% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Bowling Green vs Western Michigan.
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Bowling Green vs Western Michigan game info
|Location:||Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI|
|Date:||Tuesday, November 21, 2023|
|Kickoff:||7:00 p.m. ET|
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