The Philadelphia Flyers are priced as a 57% favorite for tonight's opener against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and my Penguins vs Flyers predictions expect Philly to come out with lots of fire in front of an electrifying home crowd.
It's the same team the Flyers eliminated in the first round of last season's playoffs. The puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
Here are my NHL picks for Wednesday, Sept. 30.
TOP PICK
Penguins vs Flyers prediction: Flyers moneyline
Play up to 61%.
The Philadelphia Flyers will have fond memories of their 4-2 series win last season against the Pittsburgh Penguins, winning two of three at home.
Philly is coming off one of its best campaigns in years, and the team's core is healthy and ready to build on 2025-26. There’s a little more uncertainty for the Pens, with three new defensemen and some reshuffling in the top six, including newcomer Nick Robertson alongside Sidney Crosby.
The Flyers have kept most of their main group together, which should give them a little more stability on opening night. Add in home-ice advantage against a bitter rival, and I like Philly to start the season with a win.
COVERS INTEL: Philadelphia is 5-2-0 all-time in home openers against Pittsburgh, and the Flyers are 33-18-5-2 overall in the same setting. 
Penguins vs Flyers combo
I'm leaning to the Under as part of this combo. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have finished with seven goals or fewer, and Philadelphia isn't exactly a high-octane team. The Flyers scored fewer than three goals per game last season while allowing just 2.91 per contest.
The Penguins have definitely shown more offensive firepower, but they're missing Bryan Rust, one of their best players, and the team will be doing some reshuffling to make up for that loss. Even last season's playoff series was low-scoring, with the Under cashing during five of the six games.
Crosby Over 1.5 shots on goal is appealing with such a low threshold. The Penguins captain averaged 2.35 SOG per game last season and 2.26 on the road, so he only needs to come close to his usual volume to cash this.
Philadelphia was strong at limiting shots a year ago, but this play is more about Crosby’s individual role. He remains the focal point of Pittsburgh’s offense and should get plenty of ice time in the season opener.
Travis Konecny averaged 2.18 SOG per game last season. He was also top five on the Flyers in individual Corsi attempts, which accounts for all shots, even if they're blocked or miss the net. Konecny isn't afraid to shoot, and reaching just two shots shouldn't be difficult here.
Penguins vs Flyers combo (5.00x)
- Under 6.5
- Sidney Crosby Over 1.5 SOG
- Travis Konecny Over 1.5 SOG
Penguins vs Flyers player prop: Owen Tippett Over 2.5 SOG
Owen Tippett led the Flyers last season with 2.72 SOG per game, and he was slightly more active at home, averaging 2.75. His numbers against Pittsburgh were encouraging as well, with Tippett averaging 2.75 shots on goal per meeting in 2025-26.
Tippett also averaged a team-best 308 individual Corsi attempts last season. That number is relevant here because it highlights his willingness to consistently fire the puck.
Pittsburgh was also just 20th in the NHL in shots on goal allowed last campaign, so the matchup shouldn't prevent Tippett from generating his usual volume.
Penguins vs Flyers goal scorer: Travis Konecny
Konecny is my preferred anytime goalscorer tonight. The Flyers' winger scored 27 goals in 77 games last season, including 14 in 38 appearances at home.
His underlying numbers support the scoring production, too. Konecny generated 112 individual scoring chances and 11.47 individual expected goals at 5-on-5 last season while tallying 20 times in those situations.
Konecny also found the net in one of his two regular-season home meetings with Pittsburgh in 2025-26. With his prominent offensive role and consistent ability to generate scoring chances, he gets a solid path to finding the back of the net tonight.
- Top picks: 1-1, 0.04 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.00
Penguins vs Flyers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Penguins 44% | Flyers 57%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (45%) | Under 6.5 (56%)
- Spread: Penguins +1.5 (65%) | Flyers -1.5 (35%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Penguins vs Flyers trend
The Philadelphia Flyers have hit the game total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Penguins vs Flyers
| Location | Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Penguins vs Flyers latest injuries
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