On the second night of a back-to-back against one of the better Under teams in hockey, I'm expecting goals to be at a premium tonight in my Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction.
The Toronto Maple Leafs come into this one as 55% favorites at Novig, but our top pick leans toward the total in what projects to be a low-scoring tilt.
Tap into my NHL picks for Wednesday, Sept. 30, and let's have a bounce-back night.
TOP PICK
Islanders vs Maple Leafs prediction: Under 6.5
The New York Islanders were one of the better Under teams in the NHL last season, failing to reach the number 43 times. It's their first game of the season, and the Toronto Maple Leafs' second in as many nights, so we should see some sloppy hockey.
The Islanders boast a fine defensive core, one of the worst top-sixes in the NHL, and a goalie in Ilya Sorokin who should be able to keep this one from getting away from them. Expect another edition of trap hockey from the Islanders, as it's their only path to victory.
With the Leafs still finding their chemistry after all of the team's offseason roster moves, seven goals will be tough to come by tonight.
COVERS INTEL: The Islanders were one of the worst teams last year in goals for per 60 (2.17), and with Mathew Barzal gone, they won't be able to help the Leafs get over this number.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs combo
Kirill Marchenko walked off the private jet yesterday and was casually the best player on the ice for the Leafs. He created offense, drove to the net, and made the most of his opportunities, ending the night with four shots on goal.
He'll be buzzing again, as will the Leafs, who will likely wash the sour taste of a loss to the Montreal Canadiens out of their collective mouths against a team that might own the worst roster in hockey.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs combo
- Leafs vs. Islanders Under 6.5
- Kirill Marchenko 3+ SOG
- Leafs moneyline
Islanders vs Maple Leafs player prop: Kirill Marchenko 3+ SOG
You aren't going to catch me fading Marchenko here. He flew into Toronto a few hours before puck drop and stole the show in Leaf Land. Marchenko led opening night in scoring chances off the rush with four and used his size, elite speed, and shot to create offense for a team that desperately needed some.
He'll be sniffing for a goal tonight, and at 50%, this is a price you have to jump on now. I'm buying what Marchenko is selling, and I expect this to move closer to 55% before game time.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: William Nylander
How can you not go with William Nylander after what you saw from him last night? He opened the scoring with an absolute cannon of a shot 48 seconds into the affair, and then added his second in the third period. His blend of speed, hands, and offensive instincts make Nylander a constant threat.
With ample opportunities on the power play, expect him to make some noise.
- Top picks: 0-1, -1.00 units
- Combos: 0-1, -0.20 units
Islanders vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Islanders (46%) | Maple Leafs (55%)
- Over/Under: Over (45%) | Under (56%)
- Spread: Islanders +1.5 (69%) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (33%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Islanders vs Maple Leafs trend
The Islanders are 0-4 in their last four road games. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Islanders vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Islanders vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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