Week 4 presents several heavy favorites, but not every popular choice belongs in a Survivor entry.
My NFL Survivor picks focus on the Vikings and Ravens while avoiding riskier spots with Buffalo and Seattle.
Check the latest NFL picks for more analysis across the league.
Vikings
Ravens
Bills
SeahawksPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Week 4 Survivor Pool first look
I'm staying away from a couple of big favorites facing teams with good quarterbacks who are relatively healthy and shouldn't be playing as poorly as they are. I'd rather fade bad teams that are meeting low expectations than good rosters who are failing to live up to their preseason hype.
There are two contrarian picks I left off my list: The Green Bay Packers (66%) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts (66%) over the Washington Commanders. Tampa and Washington will both have backup quarterbacks this week, but Green Bay is on the road, and Colts-Commanders is in London.
That said, here are the teams I'm considering using this week and teams I've crossed off.
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Teams to target in Week 4
Safe pick: Vikings (vs Dolphins)
The Miami Dolphins are the favorite to finish with the worst record in the NFL, and they just lost their best player, RB De'Von Achane, to a season-ending injury. Thus, this is the easiest game on the Minnesota Vikings' calendar, and a revenge game for defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who has a pending lawsuit against the Dolphins for racial discrimination.
Risky pick: Ravens (vs Titans)
Even though they have a higher win probability, I marked the Baltimore Ravens as my "risky pick" because I lean toward the Tennessee Titans keeping it close and covering the spread. But the Ravens are the second-favorite to win the AFC, and this is the easiest game on their schedule, while Tennessee doesn't have an above-average unit on its roster.
Teams to avoid in Week 4
Bills (vs Patriots)
Not only is this a division game, but the Buffalo Bills were just 3-point favorites over the New England Patriots when these lines were released at some places this offseason. Yes, New England looks awful, especially QB Drake Maye, but he's still healthy, and Buffalo has easier opponents by power rating down the line, such as the Dolphins and New York Jets.
Seahawks (vs Chargers)
The Seattle Seahawks still have home games against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants on their schedule, and the Los Angeles Chargers' quarterback (Justin Herbert) and coach (Jim Harbaugh) are too good to be winless. Also, Seattle lost to a QB Marcus Mariota-led Washington Commanders Sunday and narrowly beat the Patriots in Week 1.
Week 4 Survivor Pool strategy
I'm saving the Packers, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles while picking on the bad teams along the way. Green Bay's offensive line could get healthier, and it'll get RB Josh Jacobs and All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons back eventually this season.
Cincy had one of the easiest projected schedules in the preseason and upcoming games against the Dolphins and Titans. The Eagles still host the New York Giants, who won't have starting QB Jaxson Dart, and the Pittsburgh Steelers after their Week 10 bye.
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