The AFC North is a logjam after three weeks, with all four teams sitting at 2-1.
One of those division rivals will take the inside track when the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football in Week 4.
My Steelers vs. Browns predictions size up this short week matchup, giving you my early leans and NFL picks for Sept. 30.
Steelers vs Browns predictions
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Early Steelers vs Browns spread pick: Steelers -2.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers tinkered with their offensive line ahead of their upset win against Cincinnati on Sunday. That sparked the run game and made life easier on QB Aaron Rodgers.
Pittsburgh ran for six yards per carry and rolled to 138 rushing yards while the passing attack was sharper. Rodgers was sacked just twice after getting blasted in Week 2, giving him time to connect with nine different receivers.
The Cleveland Browns won a rock fight with Carolina and was outgained by more than 100 yards on the day. A roughing the passer penalty on the Panthers erased an interception late in the game and set up the Browns for a comeback win.
If the Steelers o-line can hold up against Cleveland’s defense, Pittsburgh pulls ahead in the AFC North.
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Early Steelers vs Browns total pick: Under 37.5
A short week is hard enough when you’re not a 40-year-old QB. Rodgers has little time to rest and ready for the Browns on Thursday.
Expect the Steelers to ride the momentum of RB Jaylen Warren, who had 176 total yards in Week 3, as well as continue those shorter shots to the tight ends.
Cleveland allowed only 4.9 yards per play to Carolina and was able to get solid pressure and collect three sacks in the win. That won’t leave much time in pocket for Rodgers to hit deeper throws.
Deshaun Watson has been up and down the past two games. He faces a revamped Steelers defense playing a high rate of zone. Pittsburgh continues to generate takeaways, with two in the win over Cincinnati and six on the season.
Some extended forecasts do show a 43% chance of rain showers in Cleveland for Thursday night with wind gusts up to 22 mph. I’m leaning Under and would like it even more if that wet weather shows up.
Looking back at the past history of these AFC North foes, the Under is 22-14 (61%) in their last 36 head-to-head regular season games.
Steelers vs Browns odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Steelers vs Browns spread: Browns +2.5
- Steelers vs Browns moneyline: Steelers 56%, Browns 44%
- Steelers vs Browns Over/Under: 37.5
How to watch Steelers vs Browns
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Cleveland, OH
- Venue: Huntington Bank Field
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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