After sweeping the Dallas Wings in the regular season, the Golden State Valkyries delivered a blowout victory in Game 1 of the first round on Sunday.
On the brink of elimination, my Wings vs. Valkyries prediction and WNBA picks expect Paige Bueckers to do all she can to keep her team’s season alive with another strong scoring performance.
Read on to see why I’m taking the Over on Bueckers' points prop while also picking the Valkyries to close out the series in a low-scoring road matchup on Wednesday, Sept. 30, with tip-off scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at College Park Station on ESPN.
TOP PICK
Valkyries vs Wings prediction: Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points
Paige Bueckers averaged 23.1 points per game over her final 12 regular-season contests before delivering a 21-point performance in Game 1. She finished with 20+ nine times in that span.
Bueckers reached that mark in 26 of 42 regular-season appearances, and she’s scored 21 in each of her last two matchups with the Golden State Valkyries.
Golden State’s league-best defense has shut down high-scoring opponents, but Bueckers’ 17.7 ppg against the V’s were tied for sixth-best in the W.
Bueckers put the Dallas Wings on her back in Game 1, as the other four starters totaled just 23 points. She’ll be heavily leaned on in Game 2, and with her team on the brink of elimination, I expect another 20-point showing.
COVERS INTEL: Bueckers’ 21 points were one shy of the Wings’ playoff debut record, and her 90% shooting marked the third-best shooting performance in WNBA playoff history for a player with at least nine makes.
Valkyries vs Wings combo
The Valkyries’ interior defense held Jessica Shepard scoreless in Game 1, and limiting Bueckers’ top complementary teammate is the key to a Golden State victory and cover, playable to -5.5.
The Wings went 1-7 SU in games where Shepard scored fewer than 10 points, finishing with a -58 point differential. I’m counting on Dallas making this game more interesting, but the Valkyries’ depth, shooting, and defense will prevail late and lead to a win and cover.
I expect a closer contest than Game 1 as the Wings lock in defensively at home after giving up 104 points on the road. They surrendered 79.7 ppg at home and allowed the lowest FG% at just 41.8%.
This is still a wildly low total, but Dallas can control the tempo and make life more difficult for GS. I’ll play this one down to 154.5.
Valkyries vs Wings combo
- Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points
- Valkyries -4.5
- Under 156.5
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
- Top picks: 38-42, -8.9 units
- Combos: 9-71, -24.03 units
Valkyries vs Wings odds
- Spread: Valkyries -4.5 | Wings +4.5
- Moneyline: Valkyries 62% | Wings 39%
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 | Under 156.5
Valkyries vs Wings trend
Golden State is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight H2H matchups. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Valkyries vs Wings
| Location | College Park Station, Arlington, Texas |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Valkyries vs Wings latest injuries
Valkyries: None.
Wings: Alanna Smith F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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