After sweeping the Dallas Wings in the regular season, the Golden State Valkyries delivered a blowout victory in Game 1 of the first round on Sunday.
On the brink of elimination, my Wings vs. Valkyries prediction and WNBA picks expect Paige Bueckers to do all she can to keep her team’s season alive with another strong scoring performance.
Read on to see why I’m taking the Over on Bueckers' points prop while also picking the Valkyries to close out the series in a low-scoring road matchup on Wednesday, Sept. 30, with tip-off scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at College Park Station on ESPN.
TOP PICK
Valkyries vs Wings prediction: Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points
Paige Bueckers averaged 23.1 points per game over her final 12 regular-season contests before delivering a 21-point performance in Game 1. She finished with 20+ nine times in that span.
Bueckers reached that mark in 26 of 42 regular-season appearances, and she’s scored 21 in each of her last two matchups with the Golden State Valkyries.
Golden State’s league-best defense has shut down high-scoring opponents, but Bueckers’ 17.7 ppg against the V’s were tied for sixth-best in the W.
Bueckers put the Dallas Wings on her back in Game 1, as the other four starters totaled just 23 points. She’ll be heavily leaned on in Game 2, and with her team on the brink of elimination, I expect another 20-point showing.
COVERS INTEL: Bueckers’ 21 points were one shy of the Wings’ playoff debut record, and her 90% shooting marked the third-best shooting performance in WNBA playoff history for a player with at least nine makes.
Valkyries vs Wings combo
The Valkyries’ interior defense held Jessica Shepard scoreless in Game 1, and limiting Bueckers’ top complementary teammate is the key to a Golden State victory and cover, playable to -5.5.
The Wings went 1-7 SU in games where Shepard scored fewer than 10 points, finishing with a -58 point differential. I’m counting on Dallas making this game more interesting, but the Valkyries’ depth, shooting, and defense will prevail late and lead to a win and cover.
I expect a closer contest than Game 1 as the Wings lock in defensively at home after giving up 104 points on the road. They surrendered 79.7 ppg at home and allowed the lowest FG% at just 41.8%.
This is still a wildly low total, but Dallas can control the tempo and make life more difficult for GS. I’ll play this one down to 154.5.
Our Ed Scimia is also anticipating a productive evening from Angel Reese as part of his Dream vs. Mystics prediction.
Valkyries vs Wings combo
- Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 points
- Valkyries -4.5
- Under 156.5
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Valkyries vs Wings player prop: Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 rebounds
Including Game 1 of the playoffs, Bueckers has corralled 4+ rebounds in 25 of 43 games this season, grabbing exactly three boards 11 more times. She’s been particularly active on the glass of late, hitting the Over on this line in eight of her last nine while averaging 4.7. I’ll happily play this one up to 4.5.
Bueckers finished with six rebounds in Game 1, and she’s averaged 3.7 across three road matchups with Golden State. Shepard was shut down with just three boards in Game 1, and she averaged only 7.8 against a Golden State defense that likes to space the floor and spread out opposing bigs.
Both teams rank in the Top 6 in lowest opponent FG%, so Bueckers should see plenty of rebounding opportunities, especially if Shepard is limited again. Count on Bueckers to reach this modest rebound total once again.
- Top picks: 38-42, -8.9 units
- Combos: 9-71, -24.03 units
Valkyries vs Wings odds
- Spread: Valkyries -4.5 | Wings +4.5
- Moneyline: Valkyries 62% | Wings 39%
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 | Under 156.5
Valkyries vs Wings trend
Golden State is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight H2H matchups. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Valkyries vs Wings
| Location | College Park Station, Arlington, Texas |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Valkyries vs Wings latest injuries
Valkyries: None.
Wings: Alanna Smith F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
