Two high-powered Big 12 offences clash Saturday when the Arizona State Sun Devils visit the Baylor Bears, in the first conference game for both schools.
The Bears come into this one as 2.5-point home favorites, but my Arizona vs. Baylor predictions have the visitors coming away with the win.
Let’s break this one down and offer our free college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Arizona State vs Baylor prediction
Arizona State vs Baylor best bet: Arizona State moneyline (+114)
It’s entirely possible that Arizona State’s 24-20 loss to Mississippi State was simply an early speed bump in their schedule.
The Sun Devils bounced back by smacking Texas State 34-15, and looked good doing it.
Sam Leavitt shook off his worst start of the year to throw for 188 yards and two TDs. He also ran one in, part of an ASU rush attack that churned out 245 yards on a healthy 5.8 clip and two scores.
Baylor got crushed by Auburn to start their year, then barely squeaked by 17th-ranked SMU in double OT, before blowing out Samford.
One constant for the Bears is the play of QB Sawyer Robertson, who is one of three pivots with over 1,000 yards passing on the season, but the Sun Devils might have the defense to bend and not break.
They’ve allowed just four TDs in the nine red zone situations they’ve faced, and they have 11 sacks on the year, so they can at least get Robertson off his spots.
If ASU can get a baseline average performance from Leavitt, the run game is among the best in the nation: ranked top five by PFF, they have already cranked out 28 runs of 10 yards or more.
Baylor’s run defense has been a turnstile, currently sitting 124th in rush yards allowed and 81st in tackling. Auburn piled up 300+ yards rushing, while SMU matched them with 163 on the ground.
With the Sun Devils getting plus odds on the road, I like them making their case as a ranked team again with a statement win against a good Baylor side.
Arizona State vs Baylor same-game parlay
Leavitt on the ground has been a good weapon for the Sun Devils, as he’s scored three rushing TDs in three games this year.
Baylor has allowed two QB rushing scores this season, and they’re porous against the run, allowing 188.3 yards per game. It presents plenty of run opportunities for Leavitt.
Swayer Robertson has been tearing it up to start the year, throwing for 10 total TDs and connecting on three scores in every game this season.
Baylor is as pass-happy as they come, leading the Big 12 in pass attempts. This might kill my total bet, but I do think if the Bears do score, it will come through the air.
Arizona State vs Baylor SGP
- Arizona State moneyline
- Sam Leavitt anytime TD
- Sawyer Robertson Over 2.5 TD passes
Our deep-ball SGP: Leavitt leads the way
- Raleek Brown has picked up back-to-back 100-yard games, and we’ve already told you how badly Baylor’s run game has looked out of the gate.
- Josh Camron has been a go-to guy for Robertson, with three TD grabs through three games. Dating back to last season, he’s had six TD catches in seven games.
Arizona State vs Baylor SGP
- Arizona State moneyline
- Sam Leavitt anytime TD
- Sawyer Robertson Over 2.5 TD passes
- Raleek Brown Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Josh Cameron anytime TD
Arizona State vs Baylor odds
- Spread: Arizona State +2.5 | Baylor -2.5
- Moneyline: Arizona State +118 | Baylor -138
- Over/Under: Over 59 | Under 59
Arizona State vs Baylor trend to know
Baylor is 1-3-0 against the spread in its last four games. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona State vs Baylor.
How to watch Arizona State vs Baylor
| Location | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX |
| Date | Saturday, September 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Arizona State vs Baylor latest injuries
Arizona State vs Baylor weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
