TCU vs Texas Tech Odds, Picks and Predictions: Red Raiders Rankled by In-State Rivals

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and the TCU Horned Frogs come into this contest fairly evenly-matched, but recent trends and injuries suggest TCU will be the superior side tonight, per our college basketball betting picks.

Feb 20, 2024 • 13:06 ET • 4 min read
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We've got a Lone Star State battle in NCAA hoops on Tuesday night as the Texas Tech Red Raiders host the TCU Horned Frogs. Both of these schools have identical 18-7 overall records and are tied for fifth place in the Big 12 standings with a 7-5 mark.

The Horned Frogs took the first meeting between these teams last month but the Raiders are expected to even the score with college basketball odds installing them as 5.5-point favorites for tonight. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Tuesday, February 20.

TCU vs Texas Tech best odds

TCU vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and the TCU Horned Frogs have identical records both overall and in conference play, and there isn't much separating them on the KenPom ratings with TCU at No. 32 and Texas Tech at No. 23. That said, the Horned Frogs have looked like the better team lately.

The Horned Frogs are 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games while the Red Raiders are 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their previous six. That includes an 85-78 TCU victory when these teams previously met up on January 30 in Fort Worth. 

The Red Raiders shot 52% from the field and went a red-hot 14 of 28 from long range in that contest and still lost by seven points. Pop Isaacs dropped 25 points and went 5-for-11 from deep in that contest, but considering that the Red Raiders leading scorer has a pathetic 35.2 FG% on the season, don't expect another sharp-shooting performance. 

On the other end of the floor, this Texas Tech program doesn't play the same lockdown defense that it did during the Chris Beard era. The Raiders are 11th in the conference in defensive efficiency during Big 12 play and they don't pressure ball-handlers or slow down opponents.

That makes for a poor matchup against an up-tempo TCU attack that's third in the country in transition efficiency per ShotQualityBets while ranking in the Top 20 in passing and attacking the rim. 

Another factor to consider when betting this game is that Red Raiders starting center Warren Washington is a game-time decision due to a foot injury. The seven-footer leads the team with 7.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game, and Texas Tech doesn't have much size in its frontcourt without him.

The Raiders played with 6-foot-7 Robert Jennings as their lone big when Washington was unable to suit up in Saturday's loss to Iowa State. That's bad news against a TCU lineup that has a ton of length and is 28th in the country in rebounding rate (53.9%). 

If you're considering backing Tech in a revenge spot with home-court advantage, keep in mind that TCU doesn't have far to travel and left Lubbock with a 83-82 win last year. The Horned Frogs are also 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four away games and have a road victory against Baylor and a razor-close road loss to Kansas on their resume. Take them with the points here.

My best bet: TCU +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings

TCU vs Texas Tech same-game parlay

TCU +5.5

Over 147

Trevian Tennyson Over 2.5 made 3s

While I pointed out that the Red Raiders haven't been great defensively, neither have the Horned Frogs, who rank just one spot ahead of them in defensive efficiency in conference play. That combined with their fast pace has led to them surrendering 75.8 ppg to Big 12 opponents. 

With the Red Raiders 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and these teams combining for 163 points in the previous meeting, the Over also looks like a good play here. 

The Red Raiders are 11th in the Big 12 in opponent 3-point percentage during conference play (35.5%) while the Horned Frogs lead the conference with a sizzling 38.9 3PT%. TCU's best outside shooter is Tennyson who has hit 3+ treys in eight of his last 13 games and went 4-for-8 from beyond the arc in the previous meeting against Texas Tech.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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TCU vs Texas Tech spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread hasn't seen any movement from the opening number of Texas Tech -5.5 while the O/U has ticked down from 147.5 to 146.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

The Red Raiders are coming off an 82-74 road loss against Iowa State. They have covered the spread just once in their last six games but that was a 29-point beatdown of No. 9 Kansas.

TCU is on a two-game winning streak after beating West Virginia by 16 points at home and beating Kansas State by three points last weekend. The Horned Frogs have gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.  

TCU vs Texas Tech betting trend to know

The Over is 9-3 in Texas Tech's last 12 conference games. Find more college basketball betting trends for TCU vs. Texas Tech.

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TCU vs Texas Tech game info

Location: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
Date: Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

TCU vs Texas Tech key injuries

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