No. 5 Louisville escaped with one of the sloppier wins of the opening round, edging South Florida despite missing its top scorer and turning the ball over 22 times.
That margin for error shrinks in the Round of 32, where No. 3 Michigan State awaits on Saturday.
In contrast, the Spartans delivered one of the most complete performances of the Round of 64, rolling to a 25-point blowout over North Dakota State.
Our Louisville vs. Michigan State predictions expect Tom Izzo’s squad to impose its physical style on a Cardinals team that enters this matchup a bit worn down.
My March Madness picks take MSU to win outright on March 21.
Louisville vs Michigan State prediction
Who will win Louisville vs Michigan State?
Michigan State: All game models point to the Michigan State Spartans punching their ticket to the Sweet 16.
Sparty doesn’t allow anything easy inside and will make the Louisville Cardinals work for every bucket.
Louisville vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State moneyline (-185)
The Cardinals are already without top threat Mikel Brown Jr., and backcourt mate Ryan Conwell took some hard screens in that win over USF. A tenderized Louisville Cardinals now meets one of the most physical teams — on both ends of the floor — in the MSU Spartans.
The Spartans can bully UL, especially down low. The Cardinals gave up 44 points in the paint to the Bulls and rolled out the red carpet to the rim in the home stretch of ACC play.
Michigan State has capable bodies to battle in the paint, a deeper bench, and fresher legs. Getting MSU shorter than two bucks seems like a steal.
COVERS INTEL: Protecting the paint is an issue for Louisville. It's allowed an average of 38 PITP per game over its last 13 outings.
Louisville vs Michigan State same-game parlay
Jaxon Kohler is an inside-out threat for MSU. He’s able to score inside but also stretch the defense with his 3-point shooting. The Spartans will need to knock down some triples to match UL’s perimeter points.
Jeremy Fears’ assignment will be slowing down the Cardinals' guards on defense. Michigan State doesn’t want this to turn into a track meet, so MSU will take its time on offense. Louisville sits in the Top 75 in limiting assists, and Fears is projected for fewer than nine dimes.
Louisville vs Michigan State SGP
- Michigan State moneyline
- Jaxon Kohler Over 12.5 points
- Jeremy Fears Under 9.5 assists
Our Big Dance SGP: Green Machine
The Spartans paint the key Green and White, attack the rim. This trio combined for 49 of MSU’s 92 points in the Round of 64.
Louisville vs Michigan State SGP
- Michigan State -4.5
- Coen Carr Over 11.5 points
- Jaxon Kohler Over 12.5 points
- Carson Cooper Over 12.5 points
Louisville vs Michigan State odds
- Spread: Louisville +4.5 (-110) | Michigan State -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Louisville +160 | Michigan State -185
- Over/Under: Over 151 (-110) | Under 151 (-110)
Louisville vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has cashed the moneyline in 18 of its last 25 games (+7.20 Units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Louisville vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Louisville vs Michigan State
| Location | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date | Saturday, March 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Louisville vs Michigan State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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