Lakers vs Rockets Prediction, Picks & Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 3

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 23, 2026 , 06:30 PM ET • 4 min read

Kevin Durant's disaster of a second half in Game 2 gave prop bettors one of the worst beats of the NBA Playoffs. Jason Logan doesn't dare doubt KD with extra rest, home court, and a big gulp of "Haterade" in Game 3.

NBA

Match starts: 23 hrs
LAL
69 %
HOU
31 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Kevin Durant o23.5  Points Scored (-115) Kevin Durant o23.5 Points Scored (-115)
Read Analysis
Kevin Durant Houston Rockets NBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) defends Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) in the first half of game two.

The next time the sports betting gods deal out a bad beat, just think of those who backed Kevin Durant to clear his points prop in Game 2 of this opening-round series.

Durant came out hot, dropping 20 points in the first half with the Over 23.5 looking well within reach before managing just three more the rest of the way.

It was a rough night for the “it’s rigged” crowd, and the backlash was swift, with criticism pouring in over his second-half fade and growing doubts about Houston’s chances after falling behind 0-2.

Our Lakers vs. Rockets predictions know all too well that Durant is fueled by drama and my NBA picks are buying low on one of the great postseason performers in NBA history for Friday, April 24.

Lakers vs Rockets prediction

Lakers vs Rockets best bet: Kevin Durant Over 23.5 points (-115)

Kevin Durant started Game 2 hitting 6-of-7 from the field and cashing in all seven of his free throws. After the halftime break, he was 1-for-5 shooting and went 1-of-2 from the charity stripe, drawing aggressive attention from the Los Angeles Lakers’ defense.

Afterwards, as reporters gushed over the Lakers’ defensive game plan, LeBron James was hesitant to celebrate the success on KD, knowing what was coming.

“That just makes him even madder going into Game 3,” James warned the media.

Forgotten in all the shit talk directed at Durant is that he was a game-time decision for Tuesday’s tilt after sitting out Game 1 with a knee contusion and playing his first contest since April 10.

Now, with the series swinging to Houston, Durant has extra days to strengthen that knee as well as drink in all the hate from the mainstream media. And when asked about how he should have dealt with the constant double teams from Los Angeles, Durant’s solution was to attack.

“I’m trying to make passes… But I feel like I’ve got to shoot more of those and put my teammates in better positions,” Durant told reporters.

That was his plan before the playoffs, when he exploded for more than 27 points on 54.4% shooting over his final 13 outings, leading the Houston Rockets to a 10-3 SU mark in those games. He topped 23.5 points in all but two of those showings.

The 12 FGAs in Game 2 tied his lowest shot total during that run and if Durant is a man of his word, he’ll get up at least his usual 17 attempts in Game 3. Projections sit as high as 28 points for a guy who’s averaged more than 29 points in the playoffs throughout his career.

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Lakers vs Rockets same-game parlay

The Rockets may win this one but the spread seems out of whack considering how well the Lakers are playing right now. I expect some offensive adjustments from Houston but don’t have it winning by 10 points.

The Lakers have gotten some great performances from their role players and Rui Hachimura has been quietly consistent through two games. He’s shooting a collective 11-for-20 from the field (5-for-10 on 3-pointers), doesn’t shrink on the road, and is projected for as many as 15 points in Game 3.

Lakers vs Rockets SGP

  • Lakers +9.5
  • Kevin Durant Over 23.5 points
  • Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Get your GOAT 

LeBron knows what’s coming from KD in Game 3. This could be the GOAT on GOAT battle we’ve been waiting for in this series. The Lakers keep it closer than oddsmakers expect, while the Rockets’ offense will finally find its way and top this ultra-low total.

Lakers vs Rockets SGP

  • Lakers +9.5
  • Over 205.5
  • Kevin Durant Over 23.5 points
  • LeBron James Over 24.5 points

Lakers vs Rockets odds for Game 3

  • Spread: Los Angeles +9.5 | Houston -9.5
  • Moneyline: Los Angeles +320 | Houston -400
  • Over/Under: Over 205.5 | Under 205.5

Lakers vs Rockets betting trend to know

NBA playoff totals of 206 points or lower have produced a 21-14 Over/Under record the past three postseasons (60% Overs). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Rockets.

How to watch Lakers vs Rockets Game 3

Location Toyota Center, Houston, TX
Date Friday, April 24, 2026
Tip-off 8:00 p.m. ET
TV
Prime Video

Lakers vs Rockets latest injuries

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst Jason Logan has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast at stations like WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio, Jason's analysis has also been featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers' flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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