The Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers square off Saturday night, and our projections have pinpointed several player props offering clear value.
These Mavericks vs. Cavaliers computer picks highlight top projections across both rosters—from Donovan Mitchell’s scoring and Jarrett Allen’s rebounding to Naji Marshall’s offensive output. Each selection stacks the posted sportsbook line directly against our model’s expected outcome.
For more on tonight’s slate, check out our NBA picks for Saturday, Nov. 14.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers computer picks
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Mavericks |
 Cavaliers |
|---|---|
| Flagg u24.5 points 54% |
Mitchell u24.5 points 53% |
| Washington o5.5 rebounds 70% |
Allen u9.5 rebounds 62% |
| Irving o3.5 assists 66% |
Harden o5.5 assists 63% |
| Washington o1.5 3-pointers 63% |
Mitchell o2.5 3-pointers 57% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Mavericks computer picks
Cooper Flagg Under 24.5 points (54%)
Projection: 24.02 points
Cooper Flagg has cooled off after an early-season surge, falling below 24.5 points in four of his last five outings—including a 12-point dud against Minnesota on Thursday.
The Cleveland Cavaliers’ disciplined interior defense and length in the frontcourt present a tough scoring environment for the Dallas Mavericks star tonight. With Dallas leaning on balanced perimeter creation and Flagg shooting just 30% from deep this season, expect him to stay Under 24.5 points.
P.J. Washington Over 5.5 rebounds (70%)
Projection: 6.52 rebounds
P.J. Washington was limited to just 16 minutes and three rebounds in Thursday’s blowout loss to Minnesota, making tonight’s 5.5 rebound line an appealing buy-low spot.
Averaging 7.3 boards per game this season, the Mavericks forward has cleared this mark in seven of his last 11 outings when playing normal rotation minutes. Facing a Cavaliers squad on the second night of a back-to-back, expect Washington to dominate the glass and cash the Over.
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Kyrie Irving Over 3.5 assists (66%)
Projection: 4.69 assists
Kyrie Irving enters tonight’s matchup in Cleveland averaging 4.3 assists per game this season, clearing the 3.5 mark in seven of his 10 outings—including four dimes in just 27 minutes during Thursday’s blowout loss in Minnesota.
Returning to his old stomping grounds against a Cavaliers defense allowing 14.0 made three-pointers per game, Irving’s drive-and-kick playmaking for Dallas’ perimeter shooters gives him a clear path to Over 3.5 assists.
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 3-pointers (63%)
Projection: 1.65 threes
Washington has been letting it fly from deep this season, averaging 2.3 made triples per game on 35.1% shooting.
Before Thursday’s blowout loss in Minnesota limited him to 16 minutes, the Mavericks forward had drained at least two three-pointers in five straight outings and nine of his 11 games overall.
Facing a Cavaliers squad on the second night of a back-to-back, expect Washington to cash Over 1.5 threes tonight.
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Cavaliers computer picks
Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 points (53%)
Projection: 22.35 points
Donovan Mitchell enters tonight’s matchup averaging 23.0 points per game this season, staying Under 24.5 points in eight of his 13 outings.
Playing on the second night of a back-to-back after logging 33 minutes in Miami on Friday, Mitchell faces a Mavericks defense holding opponents to 111.3 points per game over their last 10 contests.
Expect Dallas’ perimeter length and tired legs to keep Mitchell Under 24.5 points tonight.
Jarrett Allen Under 9.5 rebounds (62%)
Projection: 8.34 rebounds
Jarrett Allen enters tonight’s matchup averaging 8.3 rebounds per game this season, staying Under 9.5 boards in nine of his 11 outings—including an eight-rebound effort in 32 minutes against Miami on Friday night.
Playing on the second night of a back-to-back while logging just 26.0 minutes per game on the year, Allen faces a sizable Mavericks frontcourt featuring P.J. Washington and Cooper Flagg. Expect fatigue and limited minutes to keep Allen Under 9.5 rebounds.
James Harden Over 5.5 assists (63%)
Projection: 7.37 assists
James Harden enters tonight’s matchup averaging 5.8 assists per game on the season (75 total across 13 games) and is coming off an eight-assist performance in Miami on Friday.
With Evan Mobley sidelined, Cleveland leans even heavier on Harden’s primary playmaking and pick-and-roll creation. Having cleared 5.5 dimes in six of his 13 outings while logging 33.4 minutes per night, expect Harden to facilitate early and cash Over 5.5 assists against Dallas.
Donovan Mitchell Over 2.5 3-pointers (57%)
Projection: 2.58 threes
Mitchell enters tonight’s matchup firing away from deep, having drilled five three-pointers on 12 attempts in Friday’s loss to Miami.
Averaging 2.7 made triples per game on 38.5% shooting this season, Mitchell has cleared 2.5 threes in four of his last nine outings while launching at least nine attempts in five of those contests.
Facing a Mavericks defense surrendering 36.3 three-point attempts per game, expect Mitchell to stay aggressive and cash Over 2.5 triples.
Not intended for use in MA.
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