The nine-game NBA slate on Sunday, Nov. 15, tips off with the Indiana Pacers visiting the Philadelphia 76ers at 1 p.m. ET and ends with the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Sacramento Kings at 9 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all nine matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket prices.
The San Antonio Spurs are the biggest favorites at 91%, while the Sacramento Kings are the steepest underdogs we're backing at 20%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page for Sunday, Nov. 15.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 15
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Pacers 76ers |
23% |
 Lakers Suns |
35% |
 Hornets Clippers |
59% |
 Spurs Jazz |
91% |
 Mavericks Celtics |
82% |
 Knicks Raptors |
61% |
 Rockets Wizards |
81% |
 Hawks Bucks |
26% |
 Thunder Kings |
20% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 15
Pacers vs. 76ers: Pacers
LeBron James sat out Thursday's game for the Philadelphia 76ers, but I fully expect him to be available against the Indiana Pacers. His absence appeared to be a precautionary load-management decision rather than a sign of any lingering injury concerns.
Even with James included in my projection, I still see value on Indiana as a 23% underdog.
Philadelphia's frontcourt depth is a concern with backup bigs Adem Bona and Dominick Barlow sidelined. That's a particularly difficult situation against a frontcourt featuring Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam.
Joel Embiid typically plays around 30 minutes, which should give Indiana opportunities to exploit its interior matchup advantages throughout stretches of this game.
Lakers vs. Suns: Suns
Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves both exited the Los Angeles Lakers' last game with injuries.
Reports indicate Doncic is fine, so we expect him to be available. Reaves, however, is considered questionable and remains day-to-day.
I view 35% as fair value for the Suns if Reaves plays. However, if he's ruled out, that same 35% presents a nice edge.
It's difficult to get behind the Lakers at their current 66% probability, especially with Reaves' status uncertain. If he sits, that price could quickly become a negative-EV position.
Hornets vs. Clippers: Clippers
Brandon Miller's injury status will be the key factor in determining how much value this trade offers.
Miller missed Thursday's game and is listed as questionable for the matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.
If he plays, the Clippers at 59% offer a small edge. However, that edge grows considerably if Miller is ruled out.
Without Miller, more of the offensive responsibility falls on Coby White, and the Clippers have an ideal defensive matchup for him in Kris Dunn. Miller's absence would significantly boost Los Angeles' win probability.
Spurs vs. Jazz: Spurs
Another San Antonio Spurs trade where the market price is already extremely high at 91%, but my projected win probability is even higher at 94%, leaving a small edge.
The Utah Jazz are dealing with significant frontcourt injuries, as Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all ruled out. Jaxson Hayes is also listed as questionable.
Good luck slowing down Victor Wembanyama with that many frontcourt absences. Utah simply doesn't have the size or personnel to consistently match up with him.
Mavericks vs. Celtics: Celtics
I'll back the Celtics at 82% all day, as I make Boston closer to an 88% favorite against the Dallas Mavericks.
This Celtics roster is built to slow down a player like Cooper Flagg.
Boston has multiple switchable wing defenders who can make life difficult for him, with Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta providing additional rim protection behind them.
Knicks vs. Raptors: Knicks
Another trade on the board that will be heavily influenced by one player's availability.
Scottie Barnes is listed as questionable after missing four straight games and participating in a partial practice on Saturday.
If Barnes plays, 61% is a fair price for the Knicks. However, if you can secure that number now and Barnes is ultimately ruled out, you'll have a solid edge on New York.
It's another situation where the current market price offers fair value if Barnes plays, but could turn into a nice opportunity if the injury report breaks in your favor.
Rockets vs. Wizards: Rockets
I price the Rockets closer to an 84% favorite, so there's enough value at 81% to hit the button and back Kevin Durant and company.
The Wizards' offense relies heavily on Trae Young's playmaking, but the undersized guard could have a difficult time creating against Amen Thompson.
At 6-foot-7, Thompson has the length and athleticism to disrupt Young at the point of attack and make it tougher for him to generate offense for his teammates. Young also hasn't shown much burst off the dribble this season, which could make this matchup even more challenging.
Hawks vs. Bucks: Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are now 1-12 on the season and becoming increasingly difficult to back, but I'm going to stick with the numbers and take them at 26%.
I price Milwaukee closer to a 31% underdog, so there's simply no justification for taking Atlanta at 75%.
That would represent a negative expected value of 8%, which is the kind of trade that can do serious damage to your transparency report over the long run.
Thunder vs. Kings: Kings
Put the Sacramento Kings in the same category as the Milwaukee Bucks: difficult teams to back, but I'm going to trust the math. It hasn't steered me wrong in my sports trading, so at 20%, I have to roll with Sacramento.
A loss like this could be enough to push Sam Presti into making some phone calls and considering whether to cash in some of the draft capital Oklahoma City has stockpiled.
I price the Kings closer to a 25% underdog against the Thunder, making 20% an attractive number.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Suns
Celtics
Rockets
We could get adventurous and combine the Pacers, Bucks, and Kings for an eye-popping 81.22x payout. However, I'm going to take a more conservative approach and roll with the Suns, Celtics, and Rockets.
I love the Celtics and Rockets matchups from a basketball perspective, and I'm also confident the injury report will break in the Suns' favor with Austin Reaves.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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