The New York Knicks have certainly waited long enough. The Eastern Conference champions will end up with 10 full days off before they face the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals, compared to just three for the Western Conference champions.
Plenty will wonder if that rest will lead to rust for New York, but logic expects more fatigue to show up for San Antonio than anything else.
And that edge, however short-lived and intangible, could prove crucial for the Knicks in the NBA Finals beginning on Wednesday, June 3.
Before diving into our NBA picks, let's take a look at the latest Knicks vs. Spurs NBA Finals odds, including the series price, spread, and total games markets.
Knicks vs Spurs NBA Finals predictions
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama Finals MVP | -185 |
| Series to end in Game 6 | +210 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns — Most threes made in series | +500 |
| Knicks to win Game 1 & lose series | +475 |
Odds as of 5-31.
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Knicks vs Spurs series odds
| Team/Market | |
|---|---|
| Knicks | +175 |
| Spurs | -210 |
| Knicks +1.5 Games | -130 |
| Spurs -1.5 Games | +110 |
| Over 5.5 Games | -165 |
| Under 5.5 Games | +140 |
Some lookahead lines expected the San Antonio Spurs to be -225 favorites if they won the West, leaving the New York Knicks at about +185. They also suggested the Knicks would be better cast as a +2.5 underdog in the series odds rather than a +1.5 underdog.
But now that San Antonio escaped the West, it is only a -210 favorite. That may not be much of a move, but cutting the Knicks’ odds to +175 is still more than a 5% move.
For that matter, odds are somewhat heavily set expecting a seven-game series. As a 1.5-game underdog, New York is juiced to -130.
Then why is the series total heavily juiced to -250 on the Under 6.5 games? That difference effectively sums up the chance of the Knicks winning the series. If they do, it is unlikely to be on the road in a Game 7, even if that is the exact path the Spurs just took to slip by the Thunder.
Knicks vs Spurs series preview
Statistical Breakdown
It becomes difficult to compare postseason résumés. The Knicks not only faced lesser competition — they did, no one needs to waste time arguing this fact — they also so laughed at that competition that it further skews any view of the Eastern Conference.
But it is worth noting that New York has shot 40.0% from beyond the arc in 14 postseason games, the best mark in the NBA, while also giving up only 30.5% from beyond the arc, also the best mark in the NBA.
It may seem overly simple to highlight that stat, but this is a make-or-miss league. And if the Spurs’ youth cannot find quality shots against the Knicks’ perimeter defense, that could prove decisive.
Unsurprisingly, given they both reached the NBA Finals, these are the two best defensive ratings in the postseason and two of the three best offensive ratings.
How the Spurs will win
In short, Victor Wembanyama.
San Antonio is deeper than New York, though at this point in the postseason, both teams should ride with the horses that got them here, and one of the greatest perks of a deeper rotation is the comfort in getting out in transition.
The Spurs turned over the Thunder with an abundance, an otherwise rather rare occurrence, and then San Antonio raced downcourt, capped by Devin Vassell’s Game 7-ending dunk. That should be especially effective when Wembanyama plays a role in transition, given Karl-Anthony Towns has long struggled in transition defense.
But beyond that, how will Jalen Brunson thrive when facing Wembanyama at the hoop? Brunson’s deep shooting has trailed off in the postseason; he wrecked the Cavaliers by getting into the paint and the midrange. Those shots should be too often obscured by Wembanyama’s long reach.
How will the Spurs win? We all know the answer. Wemby.
How the Knicks will win
Defense and experience.
New York has continued to play a relentless defense in the post-Tom Thibodeau era. That is almost a default when you have both OG Anunoby and Josh Hart in your starting lineup. If they can stifle Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, suddenly, Wembanyama may not be enough scoring for San Antonio.
And the more pressure the Knicks can dump onto Castle and Harper, the better. This may be Wembanyama’s first playoff run, but he has seen plenty of high-pressure moments in his international and European careers. But Castle and Harper are still so young — and with due respect to Castle’s NCAA title with UConn — this is entirely new ground for them.
Harper could not get Rutgers into the NCAA Tournament last year. Could Madison Square Garden now rattle him? Not to be dramatic, but yes, it absolutely could.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are packed with veterans who should meet this moment. Because of one towering Frenchman, these rosters may appear lopsided, but some deference should be given to New York’s experience.
Knicks vs Spurs series props
Victor Wembanyama Finals MVP
That is a lot of juice, but the Spurs are -210 favorites for a reason, and if they do indeed win their first title without Tim Duncan, it will be because of another No. 1 pick manning the paint.
Presume Wembanyma has a relatively pedestrian series, at least by his standards. In 17 postseason games, he has averaged 23.2 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 3.5 blocks per game. Those are, indeed, Finals MVP numbers.
The better question may be wondering how San Antonio could win the Finals without Wembanyama being named MVP. Find the gap between this -185 price and the -210 series price.
Perhaps Jalen Brunson (+210) would average 35 points through the series and still lose? Or Stephon Castle (+5000) may average double-digit assists, sitting at 6.7 per game this postseason and 7.6 in the Western Conference Finals.
Those both seem rather unlikely. If thinking about betting the Spurs to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy, your smarter move would be to simply bet Wembanyama to win the Finals MVP.
When will series finish: Game 6
Speaking of Wembanyama in a starring role, FIFA and the World Cup organizers are thrilled the Spurs advanced to the NBA Finals. Game 6 in Madison Square Garden will tip off mere hours after France’s World Cup debut … in New Jersey.
World Cup games typically take about two hours, right? Certainly in group play. France should thus beat Senegal at about 5 ET on June 16 in the Meadowlands, and Game 6 will tip off at 8:30 ET. Traffic and chaos may make that a tighter commute than ideal, but expect plenty of French fans in the stands cheering on Victor Wembanyama.
Game 7 actually has the shortest odds in this consideration at +205, but the French aspect of Game 6 lends some value to thinking Wemby could win his first ring on the road, but also in front of favorable fans.
Karl Anthony Towns — Most threes made
The question with Karl-Anthony Towns has always been how many 3-pointers will he take, not how many of them will he make. Poor shooting spells have been distinctly rare throughout Towns’s career.
Perhaps more than ever, New York needs Towns to shoot with volume. Doing so is the Knicks’ best hope of pulling Wembanyama away from the rim.
Put Towns and Jalen Brunson into pick-and-rolls. If Wembanyama knows Towns is ready to pop from deep, he may have to play aggressively on the perimeter, giving Brunson a needed moment to find a crease.
Towns has shot 48.9% from deep this postseason. Shoot, big fella. Taking 3.2 per game will not be enough, though that number has absolutely been deflated by the Knicks’ penchant for blowouts in their last 10 games.
Shoot six or seven times from deep each game. Make three per game. That may be New York’s best offensive approach.
Best Bet
Knicks to win Game 1 & lose series
Parlaying these two items, with very rough math, would argue for a price closer to +300. Of course, as soon as New York wins Game 1, the series price would drastically adjust, but not by this much.
First of all, the second round went exactly to this tune, the Timberwolves slipping by the Spurs but then losing in six games.
Second of all, this is where the Knicks’ rest advantage should be most prevalent. Their Game 1 moneyline is +170; expect Game 2 to be closer to +200 no matter the Game 1 result.
This prop’s price is too high, and Game 1 is New York’s best chance at turning the series sideways. The Knicks should empty the proverbial chamber on Wednesday, though that could then become a pyrrhic victory.
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