Thunder vs Spurs Expert Picks & Game 4 Best Bets

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jon Metler • Betting Analyst 5+ years betting experience
Updated: May 24, 2026 , 05:30 PM ET • 4 min read

Offense is expected from both sides according to our NBA expert's latest Thunder vs. Spurs predictions.

 De'aaron Fox (4) dribbles the ball past Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. De'aaron Fox (4) dribbles the ball past Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they face the San Antonio Spurs in Game 4.

Our NBA experts have you covered for when the action gets underway at Frost Bank Center tonight, with a trio of NBA picks for Sunday, May 24.

Thunder vs Spurs Expert Picks Tonight

Pick Odds
Jon Metler Jon Metler: Spurs Spurs -2.5 -110
Jason Logan Jason Logan: Thunder Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 assists +145
Joe Osborne Joe Osborne: Over 219.5 -110

Odds courtesy of bet365.

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Jon Metler's expert pick: Spurs -2.5

Price: -110 at bet365

Give me the San Antonio Spurs -2.5 in Game 4 here against the Oklahoma City Thunder. I think they should be closer to a 4-point favorite in this spot.

I don’t think Jalen Williams will be playing, and it'll be De’Aaron Fox’s second game back, removing some injury friction in their starting lineup — which I also like for San Antonio.

The Thunder may be up 2-1, but they're living dangerously by heavily relying on their role players — such as Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, and even Jaylin Williams

The Spurs have the length and defensive pieces to make life miserable for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Oklahoma City's supporting cast is due for some serious regression.

Jason Logan's expert pick: Luguentz Dort Over 1.5 assists

Price: +145 at bet365

With Jalen Williams hurting and Ajay Mitchell out, OKC is running short on playmakers. Luguentz Dort hasn’t logged more than 23 minutes in the series, but he’s needed in a thinning OKC backcourt in Game 4. 

In the past two games, Dort has dished out six total dimes on 10 potential assists. His assist total has jumped from 0.5 to 1.5, but we’re seeing a solid return from a player with a likely uptick in minutes and involvement in the offense.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 219.5

Price: -110 at bet365

After a slower opener, this series has completely shifted to a faster tempo, with Games 2 and 3 producing 235 and 231 combined points.

San Antonio naturally prefers to push the pace, but the up-and-down style has benefited Oklahoma City as well, with the Thunder erupting offensively over the last two games.

The Spurs have now gone Over the total in eight straight playoff games, while OKC enters tonight leading all postseason teams in both points per game and offensive rating.


More Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 picks


Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Jon Metler
Betting Analyst

Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon naturally turned his focus to the NBA when he entered the sports betting world. With over 15 years of experience, he specializes in spreads, moneylines, and player props—always chasing value through sharp market analysis. A firm believer in analytics, Jon trusts the numbers to guide his bets. He monitors NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10+ sportsbooks to find the best prices. If there are NBA games on, Jon’s up early, caffeinated, and already placing his favorite bets.

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