After winning a dramatic, double-OT thriller in Game 1, the San Antonio Spurs have dropped two straight games and face a 2-1 series deficit heading into Game 4 at home.
Depth and fatigue will be key factors in Game 4, and my Thunder vs. Spurs predictions expect the visiting team to earn a third straight victory.
Here are my best free NBA picks for Sunday, May 24.
Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 prediction
Thunder vs Spurs best bet: Thunder moneyline (+110)
The disparity in bench numbers has been jarring, as the Oklahoma City Thunder have gotten 61 points and 121.6 minutes per game from their reserves, compared to just 21.3 points and 60.4 minutes for the San Antonio Spurs.
Victor Wembanyama has averaged 41.7 minutes, and giving him a break isn’t viable. The Spurs are +21 with him on the floor and -38 when he’s on the bench.
With Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox nursing injuries, and Wemby forced into big minutes, fatigue will be critical. I priced this line at -140, so I’m thrilled to get it early at +110.
COVERS INTEL: The Thunder’s 76 bench points in Game 3 are the most in a Conference Finals or NBA Finals game since 1971. Oklahoma City’s bench outscored San Antonio’s by 53 in the win.
Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 same-game parlay
OKC’s defense forced Victor Wembanyama outside the paint in Games 2 and 3. He attempted 25 shots and two three-pointers in Game 1 but combined for 31 shots and 12 triples over his last two. The Spurs need to adjust and get him more paint touches to utilize his size and create kickout opportunities. This is a strong value play at plus-money.
Part of San Antonio’s adjustment has to be more bench minutes. Keldon Johnson scored 20.4 points per 36 minutes while shooting 36.3% from beyond the arc this season. I’ll bet this one up to 9.5.
Thunder vs Spurs SGP
- Thunder moneyline
- Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 3-pointers
- Keldon Johnson Over 8.5 points
Thunder vs Spurs odds for Game 4
- Spread: Oklahoma City +1.5 (-105) | San Antonio -1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +110 | San Antonio -130
- Over/Under: Over 218 (-110) | Under 218 (-110)
Thunder vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Thunder have hit the moneyline in 25 of their last 30 games (+16.40 Units / 8% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Spurs.
How to watch Thunder vs Spurs Game 4
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Sunday, May 24, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Thunder vs Spurs latest injuries
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