Drew Rasmussen might be the hottest pitcher in baseball right now - it’s a no-brainer to ride with him in our Rays vs. Mariners prediction.
The Tampa Bay Rays walk into T-Mobile Park as +105 underdogs at Polymarket despite running away with the AL East and having 12 more wins on the season over the Seattle Mariners. Let’s take advantage, shall we?
Let’s get right into my MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7, and build that bankroll for the weekend.
Who will win Rays vs Mariners today: Tampa Bay Rays (+105)
Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays has been incredible this year, sporting a career-low 4.3% walk rate and 3.14 xERA across 117 innings pitched. Truly outstanding stuff.
We’re catching him during the best stint of his campaign tonight, too, having thrown 13 frames of shutout baseball across his last two starts.
It only gets better against the Seattle Mariners, punching them out at a 26% clip across 46 plate appearances.
It helps that the sticks are just as successful against Logan Gilbert on the other side, with Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero a combined 6-for-19 with an xBA of over .300 against the Mariners ace in their career.
No matter which angle you look at in this game, it’s all screaming Rays (they’re 4-0 in their last four games against a righty), which I’d price closer to -105. Let’s take advantage of this value and run with it.
Looking for more plays for today? Our Colby Marchio drops his MLB moneyline picks for the entire slate tonight.
COVERS INTEL: Can Logan Gilbert handle the Rays? Not only do Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have his number, but afer 59 plate appearances against the right-hander, Tampa Bay owns a .270 xBA and .430 xSLG. That should be enough to get us the W.
Rays vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 runs (+109)
One of the biggest reasons I love the Rays in this spot is because of Mr. Rasmussen, so it’s no surprise we’re rocking with the plus-money Under in this situation.
Looking at the MLB trends, the Under is 8-1 in the Rays’ last nine road games against a team with a winning record - that’ll play tonight.
Gilbert is no slouch, either, owning a career-low 5.4% walk rate himself, meaning both teams are going to have to earn their runs at T-Mobile Park - the most pitcher-friendly diamond in baseball.
I’m all over this Under at a full unit, and I’d play it up to +100.
- ML/RL bets: 0-4, -4 units
- Over/Under bets: 1-3, -2.9 units
Rays vs Mariners weather
It's a perfect night for baseball in Seattle, with temperatures sitting at a balmy 25 degrees farenheit around first pitch.
Rays vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Rays (+105) | Mariners (-116)
- Run line: Rays -1.5 (+180) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-126) | Under 6.5 (+109)
Rays vs Mariners trend
The Rays have simply risen to the occasion this year against good pitching, going 4-0 in their last four games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners.
How to watch Rays vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Friday, August 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Rays starting pitcher | Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.92 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Gilbert (8-6, 3.46 ERA) |
Rays vs Mariners latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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