Full slate Friday is here!
Let's get this weekend off and running by diving into my MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate.
Here are my latest MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.
MLB moneyline picks for August 7
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Metsvs  Pirates |
+125 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Phillies |
-203 |
 Redsvs  Nationals |
+108 |
 Bravesvs  Yankees |
+135 |
 Angelsvs  Marlins |
-156 |
 A'svs  Red Sox |
+245 |
 Guardiansvs  White Sox |
-133 |
 Twinsvs  Brewers |
+170 |
 Cubsvs  Royals |
-160 |
 Oriolesvs  Rangers |
+135 |
 Rockiesvs  Cardinals |
-156 |
 Astrosvs  Padres |
-115 |
 Dodgersvs  Diamondbacks |
-167 |
 Raysvs  Mariners |
+104 |
 Tigersvs  Giants |
-122 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-7.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 7
Mets vs Pirates: Mets (+125)
Mets win probability: 44%
I like the Mets as a dog, mainly because their offense has been heating up, sporting a 121 wRC+, .339 wOBA and .778 OPS while making a ton of hard contact and barrels over their last six games.
On the other hand, the Pirates have posted a 60 wRC+, .251 wOBA and .534 OPS during that stretch.
Carmen Mlodzinski has been great for the Pirates, but he has allowed nearly 55% hard-hit and almost a 14% barrel rate to opposing hitters over his last three outings.
I want the dog!
Blue Jays vs Phillies: Phillies (-203)
Phillies win probability: 67%
From a moneyline standpoint, I hate that I wrote, “take the -203 favorite,” but there is nothing offensively for the Blue Jays that gives me even an ounce of hope here.
Over their last 12 games, they have not made hard contact or barrels, and their wRC+ is below 90. What am I supposed to believe in?
Meanwhile, the Phillies are making hard contact and own a 117 wRC+ and .775 OPS over their last 12 games.
Plus, Zack Wheeler has been phenomenal, while Jose Soriano, who is making his Blue Jays debut, has not been good since May.
Phillies.
Reds vs Nationals: Reds (+108)
Reds win probability: 48%
Question: what is with the Reds having pitchers with country-singer names? Rhett Lowder, now Chase Petty? I hear a dirt road lyric in the distance....
Anywho...
With the sudden coldness from the Nationals’ bats, plus losing James Wood to injury and Luis Garcia Jr. to the Yankees at the deadline, it is mainly CJ Abrams holding things down. Cade Cavalli has done a great job holding things down across his last few outings, but I can’t back a team that can’t score.
Reds.
Braves vs Yankees: Braves (+135)
Braves win probability: 42%
Do we not think this price is a little nuts?
Tyler Mahle has been solid in his last few outings, posting a 3.17 xERA over his last five starts and a 3.16 xERA over his last three. Max Fried makes the Yankees a -138 favorite? I’m good.
The Braves’ bats have been on fire as of late, while the Yankees can seemingly only score via the home run. Yeah, that’s one of the most sustainable ways to score. (Sarcasm.)
Angels vs Marlins: Marlins (-156)
Marlins win probability: 61%
I am not in love with paying this much juice for a lineup that has been pretty chilly as of late, but the Angels’ bats have been far colder.
Plus, Tyler Phillips has looked far better over his last five outings than George Klassen, who owns a 13.50 ERA over his last three starts while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.
I will happily take the fighting fish!
A's vs Red Sox: Athletics (+245)
Athletics win probability: 29%
The Boston Red Sox are easily the hottest team in baseball, coming off back-to-back sweeps against the Dodgers and White Sox. They needed extra innings to take down the White Sox on Thursday night, and I think continuing to back them as such a heavy favorite is silly.
Especially at -251. Should they really be this heavy of a favorite tonight? I don’t think so.
Yes, the Athletics’ offense has been a no-show as of late, but Jack Perkins has maintained a 3.61 xERA on the road this season. He also does not give up much hard contact or barrels.
For the price, I think it has to be the cityless Athletics.
Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians (-133)
Guardians win probability: 57%
Simply leaning with the better pitching in this spot, with both offenses being pretty lifeless. The White Sox are coming off a big loss to the Red Sox last night, while both teams are coming off getting swept.
Left-hander Parker Messick owns a sub-3.00 road ERA and a 1.46 ERA over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Noah Schultz has a 5.73 ERA over his last five.
I am out on the White Sox this evening.
Twins vs Brewers: Twins (+170)
Twins win probability: 37%
Trusting Zebby Matthews was not on my bingo card this morning, but here we are.
I’ll keep it simple. I am not paying near -180 for the Brewers here when their offense is cold. Sure, Shane Drohan has been lights out, but I just do not like the price.
Twins.
Cubs vs Royals: Cubs (-160)
Cubs win probability: 62%
Cubs or nothing here.
Mason Black has been horrendous over his last five outings and owns a 9.73 xERA on the road this season. The Royals are back to a wRC+ below 90 over their last 12 games, while the Cubs are absolutely scorching hot.
Pay the juice. Cubs or nothing.
Orioles vs Rangers: Orioles (+135)
Orioles win probability: 42%
Given how poorly Nathan Eovaldi has pitched over his last five starts, sporting a 5.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, I want to trust the Orioles as underdogs on Friday evening.
Meanwhile, Shane Baz owns a 2.63 ERA over his last five starts. Both offenses have been pretty lifeless, so this feels like a spot to lean into the arm that has been performing at a higher level lately.
Rockies vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-156)
Cardinals win probability: 61%
I will make this one easy.
Ryan Feltner owns an 8.75 ERA, 5.18 xERA and 1.94 WHIP over his last five starts. Over their last 12 games, the Rockies have a sub-90 wRC+, 3.2% barrel rate and 25% strikeout rate.
On the other side, Kyle Leahy has been shoving, posting a 1.38 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last five starts.
I do not care how much the Cardinals’ offense has been underperforming; Feltner will wake those bats.
Astros vs Padres: Padres (-115)
Padres win probability: 54%
Ronel Blanco could get shelled in this spot tonight against the Padres. The right-hander has yet to put together a solid start this season, and with how hot the Padres’ bats have been, I think they get to him early.
On the other side, Robbie Ray has been lights out, posting a 2.00 ERA over his last five outings.
I like San Diego here.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks: Dodgers (-167)
Dodgers win probability: 62%
As wild as it is to type this, is there another team in baseball that needs a win more than the Dodgers?
They have been swept in back-to-back series and now draw Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks.
With it being Merrill Kelly, who owns a 7.23 xERA at home this season, and Roki Sasaki having far better numbers across his last three starts, I trust the Dodgers here.
Rays vs Mariners: Rays (+104)
Rays win probability: 49%
Simple.
I will not touch the Mariners until I see their team wRC+ climb back above 100. It has been sitting below 100 for over a month, and I want no part of this lifeless offense.
On the other side, you have one of the most consistent teams in baseball, and you are giving me them at plus money?
Rays, PLEASE!
Tigers vs Giants: Tigers (-122)
Tigers win probability: 55%
The Giants’ offense since the deadline has mainly been Rafael Devers and Jung Hoo Lee. The team owns an 80 wRC+, .277 wOBA, and .615 OPS over their last six games.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have posted a 172 wRC+, .414 wOBA, and .947 OPS during that stretch. They are on fire!
Keider Montero has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 2.11 ERA, 3.08 xERA and 0.70 WHIP.
I want to be on the Tigers tonight on the road!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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