This evening, we're attacking nothing but arms! It may be leg day at the gym, but on the diamond, it's all about focusing on the starting pitchers.
Headlined by Reid Detmers, here are my three favorite MLB player props for Thursday, Aug. 5.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Bryce Elder |
Over 2.5 earned runs | +100 |
 Reid Detmers |
Over 7.5 strikeouts | +119 |
 Sean Burke |
Under 6.5 strikeouts | -137 |
Bryce Elder Over 2.5 earned runs (+100)
The Miami Marlins roll into one of the better offensive matchups on the board. They feature four elite-rated hitters and two strong-rated hitters on Batters-Box's current season ratings.
They will face Atlanta Braves right-hander Bryce Elder, who has hit a few speed bumps over his last five starts. During that stretch, Elder owns a 4.32 ERA, 5.50 xERA, and 1.36 WHIP while allowing plenty of hard contact and barrels.
Four of Miami's six highest-rated hitters swing from the left side, and that's where Elder has really struggled. Across the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, he owns a 5.02 ERA while allowing a 48.7% hard-hit rate, 12.8% barrel rate, and just a 28.2% ground-ball rate. Those hitters have also produced a .393 xBA, .735 xSLG, and .360 xwOBA during that span.
The Marlins have started to turn things around after their July slump, and this is a great spot for the Fighting Fish to keep it rolling.
I'd play this down to -110.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, BravesVision
Reid Detmers Over 7.5 strikeouts (+119)
One of the highest average strikeout rates on Wednesday's slate belongs to Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers, who has put together an outstanding season.
Detmers carries a strong rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset while boasting an elite matchup wOBA and strikeout rating. Over his last five starts, he has maintained a strikeout rate north of 30%, and over his last three, that number has climbed to more than 36%.
The Baltimore Orioles present a favorable matchup for strikeout props. Baltimore has eight hitters above the league-average strikeout rate and has struggled to make contact against left-handed pitching. Over their last 60 at-bats against southpaws, seven hitters own at least a 23.3% strikeout rate, with four sitting above 30%.
Over the last week, Baltimore has a near-30% strikeout rate, so I'd play this down to even money.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, ABTV
Sean Burke Under 6.5 strikeouts (-137)
Coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the New York Yankees last week, Chicago White Sox right-hander Sean Burke will look to replicate that success against one of the hottest offenses in baseball.
Despite the Boston Red Sox hanging two touchdowns on the scoreboard last night, I don't expect the Red Sox to completely fall apart at the plate tonight. Burke has been outstanding lately, carrying a strikeout rate near 30% over his last few starts, but this is a completely different challenge.
Over their last 12 games, the Red Sox own a 126 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .811 OPS, and just a 22.6% strikeout rate. They've been even tougher to punch out recently, posting a team strikeout rate below 20% over their last six games.
It's a tough ask for Burke to dominate in back-to-back starts against two completely different offenses.
I'd play this down to -140.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, NESN
- Prop picks: 360-723, -25.0 units | FADE ME!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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