The New York Yankees are home favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but my projection makes this much closer than the market suggests.
Will Warren gives the Pirates enough of a scoring path, even with Bubba Chandler battling command concerns, to justify backing the underdog price.
Here are my Pirates vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for July 21.
Editor's note: This game has been postponed to Wednesday, July 22 at 7:05 p.m. ET, as part of a split doubleheader that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Who will win Pirates vs Yankees today: Pirates moneyline (+134)
I’m backing the Pittsburgh Pirates because this price is too long for a game my projection makes close to a coin-flip. I’d play it to +110.
Bubba Chandler's command is uncomfortable, but his Top-30 percentile barrel rate allowed should matter against a homer-dependent New York Yankees lineup. The gap is not wide enough to justify this moneyline.
I have faded Will Warren plenty this season. He is not a bad pitcher, but the market keeps overvaluing him.
His xERA sits near 5.00, and his below-average barrel profile meets a Pirates lineup with the eighth-highest barrel rate in baseball.
COVERS INTEL: Bubba Chandler’s strikeout rate has dropped from 25% last season to 20.2% this year, making his elevated walk rate much harder to survive.
Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+101)
My projection lands at 9.6 total runs, so this is a very small edge. But at the plus-money price, I'll go that direction and play it to -105.
Neither starter is built to fully shut these lineups down. Chandler’s 13% walk rate creates free traffic in Yankee Stadium, while Warren’s recent form (5.65 ERA in July) leaves the Buccos with a real scoring path.
We do not need Pittsburgh to dominate Warren, we just need them to contribute enough. I think there’s plenty of power in the lineup to do that.
- ML/RL bets: 39-35, +6.47 units
- Over/Under bets: 43-33, +12.32 units
Pirates vs Yankees weather
There's a good chance this game gets postponed due to rain in the NYC area. If there is a game tonight, the teams will be dealing with 79F temps and humid conditions, with winds blowing right-to-left.
Pirates vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +140 | Yankees -150
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Pirates vs Yankees trend
Over is 5-0 in the Pirates' last five games as a road underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.
How to watch Pirates vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, July 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, YES |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.77 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (7-4, 4.03 ERA) |
Pirates vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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