The New York Yankees are home favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but my projection makes this much closer than the market suggests.
Will Warren gives the Pirates enough of a scoring path, even with Bubba Chandler battling command concerns, to justify backing the underdog price.
Here are my Pirates vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for July 21.
Who will win Pirates vs Yankees today: Pirates moneyline (+134)
I’m backing the Pittsburgh Pirates because this price is too long for a game my projection makes close to a coin-flip. I’d play it to +110.
Bubba Chandler's command is uncomfortable, but his Top-30 percentile barrel rate allowed should matter against a homer-dependent New York Yankees lineup. The gap is not wide enough to justify this moneyline.
I have faded Will Warren plenty this season. He is not a bad pitcher, but the market keeps overvaluing him.
His xERA sits near 5.00, and his below-average barrel profile meets a Pirates lineup with the eighth-highest barrel rate in baseball.
COVERS INTEL: Bubba Chandler’s strikeout rate has dropped from 25% last season to 20.2% this year, making his elevated walk rate much harder to survive.
Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+101)
My projection lands at 9.6 total runs, so this is a very small edge. But at the plus-money price, I'll go that direction and play it to -105.
Neither starter is built to fully shut these lineups down. Chandler’s 13% walk rate creates free traffic in Yankee Stadium, while Warren’s recent form (5.65 ERA in July) leaves the Buccos with a real scoring path.
We do not need Pittsburgh to dominate Warren, we just need them to contribute enough. I think there’s plenty of power in the lineup to do that.
- ML/RL bets: 39-35, +6.47 units
- Over/Under bets: 43-33, +12.32 units
Pirates vs Yankees weather
There's a good chance this game gets postponed due to rain in the NYC area. If there is a game tonight, the teams will be dealing with 79F temps and humid conditions, with winds blowing right-to-left.
Pirates vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +140 | Yankees -150
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Pirates vs Yankees trend
Over is 5-0 in the Pirates' last five games as a road underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.
How to watch Pirates vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, July 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, YES |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.77 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (7-4, 4.03 ERA) |
Pirates vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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