MLB Picks

Joey Cantillo has been excellent at generating strikeouts recently, owning a 31.46% strikeout rate over his last five starts. However, he has also allowed plenty of hard contact, posting a 1.40 WHIP, near 55% hard hit rate and near 12% barrel rate during that stretch. The Angels have been seeing left handed pitching well, with four hitters owning strikeout rates of 20% or lower and six at 26% or lower over their last 30 at bats. Over their last six games against southpaws, Los Angeles owns a 22.5% strikeout rate. Seven strikeouts feels like too much. Take this down to -115.

Seattle starter Bryan Woo missed his last start due to a right shoulder issue. He threw just 75 pitches in that outing and could be on a more conservative pitch count today against a tough Phillies lineup. The Mariners are in a good spot to handle Woo with caution after a strong start from George Kirby yesterday and just 27 pitches used from the bullpen. There are a lot of paths, including the shoulder, that could prevent Woo from finishing the sixth inning, something he had done at just a 50% clip over his last 12 starts. Woo was already averaging just 88 pitches per start, but the shoulder adds another layer of concern, while the bullpen is fresh. He projects for just 80 pitches and 15.1 outs today, leaving plenty of meat on this Under bone.

How about getting the hottest hitter in baseball at a near-900 price? Mickey Gasper has five home runs and leads MLB in slugging over the last two weeks. The power surge is obviously unsustainable, but I'm along for the ride until the wheels fall off. He went deep twice yesterday and has hit all five of his homers since being recalled from the minors. He's a switch hitter who crushes right-handed pitching and gets a right-handed Ryan Gusto, who has the fourth-worst HR/9 among today's starters dating back to last season. The Marlins' bullpen is also gassed after using seven pitchers yesterday and being without any strong left-handed options today. Back the heater.

CJ Abrams has the fourth-best probability to go deep today, and his home run price at +300 or better is a buy for me. He gets the best home run matchup in Colorado's Tanner Gordon, who has the worst HR/9 among all starters today since the beginning of last season. Gordon is a fringe starter and is only in the rotation because the Rockies released Michael Lorenzen. As a starter (six games), he owns a 1.028 OPS against, with seven homers allowed in just 28+ innings. Batters are killing him the second time through the order, slashing .383/.453/.617, but even in the first plate appearance, hitters have a .673 slugging against Gordon. The Nationals could put up seven runs today, and all their starters are live on the longball, but I'll take a soon-to-be 30-HR hitter at a price on the good side of three dollars. Nationals Park also ranks as the third-best park for home runs today, per Ball Park Pal. 

Elmer Rodríguez does not have a pitch that survives contact. 

His four-seamer, thrown 22.6% of the time, has allowed a .538 slugging percentage with a 63.6% hard-hit rate and a .668 xSLG, and his sinker yields a .333 average and .409 xwOBA on 41.5% usage with only a 14.5% whiff rate. A 13.3% walk rate against a 12.0% strikeout rate means those pitches show up in hitters' counts all night. Yordan Alvarez is the bat in this lineup built to end an at-bat with one swing

The Jays wanted nothing to do with Bobby Witt Jr. yesterday asd 63% of his pitches were outside the zone. He finished with two walks, with one being a free IBB from a lefty bullpen arm. The Jays are happy with throwing a lefty at Vinnie Pasqunatino, who is hitting behind Witt. It worked yesterday, and with a bullpen day on tap for Toronto, I'm expecting the same treatment here. The fair price for this walk is around +145/+150, and two walks is also live with the Jays needing this win in a big way.

Freddie Freeman is one guy who will benefit from seeing a lot of fastballs and splitters. He has feasted on those two pitches, hitting .374 against righties with a .228 ISO and .602 SLG.

Only one bullpen has given up barrels at a higher clip than the Atlanta Braves in August so it’s not as if Freeman’s home run chances will tank when Smith-Shawyer exits the game.

Play to +430.

Miguel Vargas has been one of the most patient hitters in baseball lately, leading the league in walk rate over his last 10 games at nearly 30%. Even across his last 15 games, he ranks third at 23.3%. Tonight, he draws MacKenzie Gore, who I already love to go over his strikeout prop. Gore has not been walking many batters lately, but the Rangers bullpen has, posting an 11.1% walk rate over their last 21 games and an 8.8% rate against right handed hitters on the road. Vargas is worth a look above +120, but take this down to +110.