The Milwaukee Brewers are listed as a -126 favorite against Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight.
With Skenes reeling, my Pirates vs. Brewers predictions are eyeing Milwaukee to grab the win against their NL Central rivals.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 5.
Who will win Pirates vs Brewers today: Brewers (-126)
It’s never easy to fade Paul Skenes, but he is in poor form right now. The Pittsburgh Pirates ace owns a 5.24 xERA across his last two outings, having allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate.
The Milwaukee Brewers counter with Kyle Harrison, who makes his first appearance since early July after recovering from injury. Harrison may be on a short leash, but Pittsburgh has struggled against lefties, posting just a 90 wRC+ compared to a 112 mark vs right-handers.
The Brewers’ home offense gives them enough upside to get to Skenes, while Harrison can keep Pittsburgh contained.
Playable to -140.
COVERS INTEL: The Brewers own a 111 wRC+ at American Family Field this season, compared to a 98 wRC+ on the road. They should be able to cause trouble for Skenes. 
Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-131)
This total sits at 7.5, and the Under looks like the better angle.
Harrison may not work deep in his return, but Milwaukee’s bullpen has been solid, posting a 3.03 xERA over its last 22 frames. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has also been reliable with a 2.97 FIP over the last week.
This profiles as a lower-scoring game, even if Skenes allows traffic.
I'll play this to -140.
- ML/RL bets: 42-54, -17.82 units
- Over/Under bets: 53-41, +5.23 units
Pirates vs Brewers weather
Conditions in Milwaukee look cool and damp tonight, with overcast skies early and temperatures falling from the low 70s into the upper 60s.
There's a moderate chance of rain early, but conditions should improve later in the day with light winds throughout.
Worst-case scenario, expect the retractable roof to be utilized at American Family Field.
Pirates vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +117 | Brewers -126
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 (-186) | Brewers -1.5 (+178)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+122) | Under 7.5 (-131)
Pirates vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee has hit the game total Under in 30 of its last 50 games (+9.40 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers.
How to watch Pirates vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (9-9, 3.90 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Kyle Harrison (8-2, 3.01 ERA) |
Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
