So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?
The Chicago Cubs host the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon, and the North Siders still have a sliver of a shot to punch a postseason ticket.
My top Nationals vs. Cubs predictions are calling for Chicago righty Jameson Taillon to continue his September dominance and keep the dream alive.
Find out why in my MLB picks for September 20.
Nationals vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 strikeouts (-108 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon is finishing the season in style with a 1.42 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 3.50 xFIP while holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .200 batting average and .233 wOBA through three September starts.
It’s all the more impressive because his last two outings were against the postseason-bound New York Yankees and then at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The Washington Nationals check out as a much more favorable matchup.
Washington ranks 21st in wOBA (.304) and 26th in ISO (.140) against righties for the season, and the Nats sport even lower .299 and .139 overall marks across the past 30 days.
Taillon has also been far better at home all season, with a tidy 2.55 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 3.88 xFIP compared to 4.58, 1.22, and 4.30 ratios on the highway. His strikeout metrics are also higher, with a respectable 7.65 K/9 and 21.0 K% at Wrigley.
Additionally, he’s pitched six full innings in five of his past six starts and recorded five or more strikeouts in four of those six. Taillon’s lowest pitch count (85) during the stretch was against the Rockies at Coors last time out, too, and he fanned six across six.
Jameson Taillon, Painted 87mph Cutter. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/rQ3LQ0mbqi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2024
Nationals vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Jameson Taillon Over 4.5 strikeouts
Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Ian Happ Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Nationals righty Trevor Williams is making his first start since May 30 following a lengthy stint on injured reserve with a flexor strain. He should be stretched out enough to pitch into the middle innings Friday, so Cubs hitters Cody Bellinger and Ian Happ should have multiple looks.
Additionally, Chicago has a 4.5-run team total shaded to the Over, and the Nationals have a worn-out bullpen after racking up 12.1 innings and combining for 201 pitches over the past three games. Bellinger and Happ have been solid against right-handed pitchers all season, and they’re also in similar current form.
| wOBA vs. RHP | wOBA in Sep. | |
| Bellinger | .333 | .376 |
| Happ | .355 | .343 |
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nationals vs Cubs odds
Nationals vs Cubs live odds
Nationals vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Washington +145 | Chicago -175
- Run line: Washington +1.5 (-150) | Chicago -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110)
Nationals vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been notable movement to this moneyline, with the Cubs a sizable home favorite across the board.
- After the two teams combined for 13 runs in the series opener Thursday, this total has opened at 9.0 at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- Again, there hasn’t been significant early movement to the total or odds.
- For comparison, Game 1 of the series closed with Chicago a -177 favorite and a 8.5 total, and the Cubs won 7-6.
Nationals vs Cubs trend
Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his past six starts, including two straight. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Cubs.
Nationals vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Marquee |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | Trevor Williams (5-0, 2.22 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Jameson Taillon (10-8, 3.54 ERA) |
Nationals vs Cubs latest injuries
Nationals vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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