The Philadelphia Phillies are 9-18 as underdogs against teams starting a pitcher with an ERA below 4.00.
They've struggled in these spots, and my Phillies vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks expect that to again be the case against an in-form Nolan McLean.
Let's break down the whole matchup on Thursday, Sept. 17, with first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET at Citi Field on FOX.
Who will win Phillies vs Mets today: New York Mets
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m on the New York Mets to 57%.
Nolan McLean has pitched lights out against teams that don’t hit for extreme power vs. right-handed pitching.
He has allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of 16 starts facing teams outside the Top-10 in ISO, posting a 2.31 ERA while striking out 27% of batters.
The Philadelphia Phillies sit 13th in ISO on the season and have dropped to 28th against righties over their last 20 games.
The Mets rank Top 5 in both xBA and xwOBA vs. righties in September, and are more likely to provide their starter run support.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies rank 29th with a .205 batting average against right-handed pitchers this month, which doesn't bode well against a budding ace like McLean.
Phillies vs Mets Over/Under pick: 8.5
I like the Under to 55%.
McLean allowed just 0.86 HR/9 over 16 starts in pitcher-friendly conditions. He has kept the ball in the park effectively, and that should continue against a Phillies offense sitting last in hard-hit rate vs. righties over the past month.
Aaron Nola has pitched much better of late, posting a 3.60 ERA over his last nine starts while allowing 3+ runs just once.
I don’t see either team lighting it up, making nine runs a hard mark to reach.
Phillies vs Mets home run prediction: Juan Soto
Juan Soto has teed off on Nola over the years.
Soto has posted a .283 average, .391 ISO, and left the park five times over 46 at-bats. The power has really shown up.
With a .286 ISO and 17.2% barrel rate against Nola’s three most-used pitches this season, there’s every reason to expect Soto’s success to continue.
Not to mention, Soto has homered in 36% of his games when facing a starter who ranks in the 30th percentile or worse in HR/9 and HR/FB% against lefties.
- ML/RL picks: 114-97, -6.10 units
- Over/Under picks: 108-97-6, -2.40 units
Phillies vs Mets weather
The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 70s with winds blowing right to left. Neutral impact on offense.
Phillies vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Phillies 46% | Mets 55%
- Run line: Phillies +1.5 (64%) | Mets -1.5 (37%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)
Phillies vs Mets trend
The Mets have hit the game total Under in 23 of their last 40 home games (+7.75 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
How to watch Phillies vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Thursday, September 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.69 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Nolan McLean (11-9, 3.24 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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