With a reduced nine-game slate today, our MLB expert picks have pored over the matchups and emerged with some top-shelf value.
Our analysts are covering the schedule from early to late, with two predictions before 1 p.m., and a Boston Red Sox moneyline pick later tonight to cap off our MLB picks on Thursday, Sept. 17.
- UPDATE: Added Angels moneyline pick.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: LAD/CIN u9.5 |
49% |
 Jon Metler: BOS ML |
56% |
 Neil Parker: SD -1.5 |
51% |
 Joe Osborne: MIL ML |
57% |
 Dustin Saracini: LAA ML |
49% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dodgers vs Reds Under 9.5
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
This is trading at 49%, and the projections like the Over, but this has a getaway game written all over it and could be an afternoon snoozer.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have clinched a playoff berth for the 69th straight season, and following today's early 12:40 matinee, they'll get on the bird and fly home to start a series against the state-rival Giants.
Justin Wrobleski is motivated to keep a rotation spot and show his worth for the playoffs. Brady Singer has not been great, but he should be aided by a less-motivated Dodgers lineup that could be missing some names in an afternoon game.
Ten runs is a lot in a getaway spot in a game before 1 PM. This is a wait-and-buy total, as it should get more Over love with the names on the marquee.
- Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: SportsNet LA, Reds.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
At 56%, I'm buying the Boston Red Sox on Polymarket, as I make them closer to a 60% favorite. That's a much larger edge than we typically see in the market.
Sonny Gray has pitched like an ace for Boston this season, and this matchup against the Texas Rangers sets up extremely well for him. Texas has several free swingers in the lineup, including Josh Jung and Jake Burger, who are consistently looking to pull the ball. That's exactly the type of approach Gray can exploit by expanding the zone and getting aggressive hitters to chase his breaking stuff off the plate.
I also don't expect Texas' left-handed bats to have much success. Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager need to contend with Gray's two-seamer running in on their hands, and neither hitter profiles particularly well against Gray.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NESN/RSN
Neil Parker's expert pick: Padres -1.5
Price: 51¢ at Polymarket
The San Diego Padres -1.5 run line is in play to 54% because the Colorado Rockies are mired in a 6-22 slide with a 28th-ranked xERA and xFIP.
San Diego is also turning it on offensively down the stretch with a seventh-ranked wOBA and fifth-ranked xwOBA, while starter Michael King has been one of the league's most reliable righties, with a 3.07 ERA ranking 10th among all qualified starters the past three years.
It’s a completely different story for Rockies righty Tanner Gordon.
He’s served up a massive .419 wOBA and .980 OPS across his past six starts at hitter-friendly Coors Field, and the Rockies are last in the majors in wRC+, which adjusts for park factor and accounts for their favorable home environment.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Padres.TV, Rockies.TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers moneyline
Price: 57¢ at Polymarket
Kyle Harrison has eviscerated the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, allowing two total hits and zero earned runs while racking up 22 Ks across two starts.
Add a 2.11 ERA in seven daytime outings, and this looks like the perfect matchup to snap him out of his recent funk.
Run support shouldn’t be an issue, either. The Milwaukee Brewers rank first in OPS over the past week and get to tee off on Pittsburgh’s relievers in a bullpen game. The Brewers have won seven of eight, and I’m backing them to keep rolling.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Angels moneyline
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
I've loved watching Walbert Urena pitch this year, and I'm going to ride with him and the Los Angeles Angels one more time as 49% underdogs.
The righty has allowed just six earned runs across his last 21 innings pitched and is rocking a 3.40 xERA this season. Not bad for a rookie. While he doesn't own strong strikeout stuff, his elite groundball rate (55.1%) will haunt the Minnesota Twins, who have grounded into 101 double plays this year.
With the Angels owning a .300 xBA against Taj Bradley, we have a live 'dog on our hands.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Twins.TV, ABTV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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