A Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills matchup on Thursday Night Football, with a total of 54.5, has me frothing at the mouth and giddy to dive into the TD market.
My Lions vs. Bills touchdown picks expect Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Moore to find paydirt, with Jahmyr Gibbs having the honor of being the first player to score in a regular season game at the new Highmark Stadium.
For more NFL picks, check out Joe Osborne's Lions vs. Bills predictions for Thursday, Sept. 17.
Best Lions vs Bills anytime touchdown picks
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Amon-Ra St. Brown
D.J. MoorePercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Lions touchdown pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown was put to work in the Detroit Lions' Week 1 win over the Saints, catching 10 of a team-high 14 targets and scoring two touchdowns.
As a slot receiver, he can be a security blanket for Goff, and his high target volume is a big reason I always love backing him to score.
This will especially come in handy against a Buffalo Bills pass rush that got three sacks on CJ Stroud a week ago. This snippet from Jason Logan's Lions vs. Bills props is also worth considering, as he is on "Amon-Ra 7+ receptions".
Buffalo gave up a collective 82 receiving yards on four receptions to the Texans’ slot receivers in Week 1.
Lastly, St. Brown also had the most WR red zone targets in Week 1 with four, accounting for 80% of the Lions' RZ targets. Buffalo's defense gave up 381 total yards vs. Houston, and Detroit has way more weapons at its disposal.
When Detroit gets inside the 20, Goff will be looking for Mr. Reliable himself. Take this to 47%.
Bills touchdown pick: D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore has been frustrating bettors and fantasy owners alike for years, but it finally looks like he's found where he needs to be.
Moore racked up 100 yards on a team-high eight targets, including a touchdown in Week 1, and now he faces a Lions' secondary that got cooked for nearly 400 yards.
Despite how bad Detroit's secondary looked, the pass rush held up well and sacked Shough five times. I don't see Josh Allen scrambling for another two TDs, and that pressure should force him to get rid of the ball more often.
NOLA was racking up 11.7 yards per reception, which sets up the Bills to take advantage of Moore's deep-ball threat. We just saw what Olave did against this Lions' defense, and Allen can put his guys in similar situations.
First touchdown scorer pick: Jahmyr Gibbs
The first TD market is always tricky, but it feels smart to bet on a guy who just had an absurd 29 carries in Week 1. The days of Sonic and Knuckles are a thing of the past. This Detroit run game lives and dies by Jahmyr Gibbs.
We just saw the Lions' RB1 score the first two TDs for them vs. the Saints, and we no longer have to worry about David Montgomery coming in to spoil the fun.
It's also worth noting that Monty scored first in Buffalo's game vs. Houston. How poetic if Gibbs did the same...
Lions vs Bills touchdown combo
Jahmyr Gibbs
James Cook
With a game total of 54.5, both running backs should find paydirt.
Gibbs at 69% isn't worth my time as a single, and James Cook ate up 13 of the 15 rush attempts from Buffalo RBs in Week 1. This combo sounds much better than trading them solo.
- TD picks: 0-2, -2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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