It’s another great day for a baseball playoff race. We have plenty to discuss from the MLB player props market today, so let’s dive in.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 17, including why Junior Caminero is in a great spot to leave the yard against Jeffrey Springs.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Manny Machado |
Over 1.5 total bases | -135 |
 Junior Caminero |
Over 0.5 home runs | +314 |
 Framber Valdez |
Over 17.5 pitching outs | +103 |
Manny Machado Over 1.5 total bases (-135)
The San Diego Padres get another afternoon at Coors Field and another crack at one of the worst home pitching profiles on Thursday's board.
Colorado Rockies right-hander Tanner Gordon carries a 5.55 ERA into this start, and Denver has been far rougher on him. Gordon owns a 7.26 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home, allowing 11.92 hits and 2.61 home runs per nine innings.
Manny Machado is finding his power stroke again. He has 19 total bases and three home runs over his last 10 games, including a homer in the series opener at Coors.
San Diego also carries one of the higher implied run outputs on the board, with the Over/Under sitting at 10.5. I like the -135 odds, but I would not chase this much beyond -140.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, Rockies.TV
Junior Caminero Over 0.5 home runs (+314)
Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero enters Thursday with 41 home runs and has gone deep four times over his last 10 games.
A’s starter Jeffrey Springs is the real selling point. The Athletics left-hander owns a 5.93 ERA and 5.99 FIP across 135 innings, and right-handed hitters have tagged him for 23 home runs in 417 plate appearances with a .497 SLG.
The pitch mix lines up, too. Springs throws his four-seam fastball about 43% of the time, and opponents are slugging .520 against it. His slider has been even more hittable at a .680 SLG. Caminero is slugging .667 against four-seamers and .520 against sliders this season.
Springs leans on the two pitches Caminero punishes most, and +314 is a strong price for that matchup.
Take this down to +300.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, NBCS-CA
Framber Valdez Over 17.5 pitching outs (+103)
Detroit Tigers left-hander Framber Valdez has completed at least six innings in four straight starts. He threw 90 pitches in his latest outing and needed just 94 to get through seven frames against the Guardians the start before. Detroit has also let him go as deep as 105 pitches during this run, so the leash is there.
His results have sharpened with the workload. Valdez has allowed zero earned runs over his last 13 innings, scattering nine hits and three walks across starts against Cleveland and the Colorado Rockies.
Valdez already saw this Chicago White Sox lineup once in 2026 and worked 6 2/3 innings, cashing our pitching prop. Chicago has cooled at the right time for us, dropping seven of its last nine games and entering Thursday at 5-10 in September.
We're backing Valdez's recent efficiency here, and plus money on 18 outs after four straight six-inning starts is a price worth taking. I would play this at -110 or better.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Detroit SportsNet
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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