The Phoenix Mercury are 3.5-point road favorites as they visit the Portland Fire on Thursday night.
Portland has continued to play tough down the stretch, which is why I'm taking it to cover in my Mercury vs. Fire prediction. Read on to see all of my free WNBA picks for Thursday, Sept. 17.
TOP PICK
Mercury vs Fire prediction: Fire +3.5 (54%)
The Portland Fire are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, averaging 87.7 ppg in that span. The Fire rank sixth in the WNBA with a 52.8% effective field goal rate, allowing them to hang with opponents even as they struggle defensively.
On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury are flagging down the stretch, going 2-7 ATS and straight up in their last nine. They rank 11th in offensive rating (104.8), a number that will get worse without Kelsey Plum and the potential absence of Kahleah Copper as well.
I like the Fire to cover at up to 55%.
COVERS INTEL: The Fire score 35.9% of their points from three-point range, and will fire away against a Mercury team that allows opponents to shoot 35.7% from deep.
Mercury vs Fire combo
Along with taking the Fire to cover, I'm also backing the Under tonight. While the Fire can be efficient on offense, there are several injuries on both sides tonight that lead to expect fewer points than normal. Throw in the fact that these teams both rank in the bottom five in the league in pace of play, and the Under is a strong selection.
To complete tonight's combo, I'm picking Emily Engstler to hit at least two shots from three-point range tonight. The Portland forward has hit multiple threes in three of her last four games, and has taken at least four shots from deep in each of her last nine appearances. She'll get significant volume tonight in a depleted Fire lineup.
Mercury vs Fire combo
- Fire +3.5
- Under 172.5
- Emily Engstler 2+ threes made
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
- Top picks: 28-28, -2.11 units
- Combos: 10-46, +0.53 units
- Player props: 27-7, +17.91 units
Mercury vs Fire odds
- Spread: Mercury -3.5 | Fire +3.5
- Moneyline: Mercury 59% | Fire 41%
- Over/Under: Over 172.5 | Under 172.5
Mercury vs Fire trend
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Fire
| Location | Moda Center, Portland, Ore. |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KPHE, KPDX |
Mercury vs Fire latest injuries
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (Questionable), Kelsey Plum (Out).
Fire: Bridget Carleton (Out), Megan DiLeo (Out), Sania Feagin (Out), Carla Leite (Out), Teja Oblak (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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