The Detroit Tigers have gotten crushed by divisional opponents all season, posting a 17-31 record against the AL Central.
My Tigers vs. White Sox predictions believe sending Framber Valdez to the hill against a Chicago White Sox (53%) team that crushes left-handed pitching means this is not a great spot to buck that trend.
Let's break down why I'm backing Chicago with my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 17.
Who will win Tigers vs White Sox today: White Sox moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I like the Chicago White Sox up to 55%.
They rank second in xwOBA against southpaws over the past month while leading the majors with an 11.6% barrel rate.
Framber Valdez has struggled (5.50 ERA, 5.57 xERA) facing Top-10 offenses in ISO vs. lefties, and the White Sox sit third.
Erick Fedde is unlikely to give the Sox much length, but their bullpen sits 10th in FIP over the past month. They can tighten the screws and make the most of the run production the bats provide.
COVERS INTEL: The White Sox have performed well against lefties all year, ranking fifth in xwOBA.
Tigers vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5
I’m playing the Over up to 53%.
The White Sox hit for a ton of power vs. left-handed pitching, and they’re one of the best when it comes to getting the ball in the air.
That’s important when facing a heavy ground-ball pitcher like Valdez, whom they’ve already proven they can score on. The White Sox plated four runs over six innings when they faced him back in May.
The Detroit Tigers are ninth in xwOBA against righties over the last month. They can certainly get to Fedde and his 24th percentile xERA.
Tigers vs White Sox home run prediction: Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk is as fierce as it gets against left-handed pitching.
He is hitting .329 with a .309 ISO and a whopping 1.009 OPS when facing southpaws, and he should get plenty of at-bats against Valdez — who has the ability to pitch deep into games even when not at his best.
Grichuk has 14 career at-bats vs. Valdez and hit the ball hard in six of them, which is a good sign he can generate power in this matchup.
With ISOs of .350 and .429 against Valdez’s two most-used pitches, Grichuk is as likely as anybody to do damage tonight.
- ML/RL picks: 114-97, -6.10 units
- Over/Under picks: 108-97-6, -2.40 units
Tigers vs White Sox weather
Temperatures are expected to hover around 70 with winds blowing left to right. Slight boost to the pitchers.
Tigers vs White Sox odds
- Moneyline: Tigers 49% | White Sox 52%
- Run line: Tigers +1.5 (66%) | White Sox -1.5 (35%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (50%) | Under 8.5 (51%)
Tigers vs White Sox trend
Chicago has won 29 of its last 50 home games (+6.10 units, 10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. White Sox.
How to watch Tigers vs White Sox and game info
| Location | Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Detroit SportsNet, CHSN |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Framber Valdez (10-10, 4.01 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Erick Fedde (8-9, 3.97 ERA) |
Tigers vs White Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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