Don't fail me now, dingers. It's coming down to the wire, and I have to get on one more late-season MLB player props heater before I call it a season.
The Cincinnati Reds kick things off early, so getting some offense on the card is a must. Also, the AL's best home-run hitter is getting a great +EV price in a plus-plus home matchup.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, Sept. 17.
MLB home run props for today
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Sal Stewart
Junior Caminero
Home run prediction: Sal Stewart
Many home run props project as +EV in this game, and several are from the home side. Sal Stewart is closer to 23.3% probable (4.3x) to go yard today, per THE BAT, and he gets a righty-lefty matchup in a great setting.
Justin Wrobleski has bounced between the rotation and bullpen and has posted a 7.09 ERA in the second half, with 13 homers allowed in just 33 innings. I do like this Under (as evidenced in today's MLB expert picks), as it's a great getaway spot for the Dodgers, but the Reds could surprise this afternoon with a great HR pitcher to target and a tired LAD bullpen.
- Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet LA, Reds.TV
Home run prediction: Junior Caminero
The No. 2 AL MVP odds candidate should be priced around 29.4% to go yard against Jeffrey Springs this afternoon.
All you're getting for this +EV price is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, who leads the AL with 41 homers. The Rays also have a lot of intel on the A's starter after Springs spent four seasons in Tampa Bay. He's a great HR target, as only two other pitchers in baseball have allowed more this year. The lefty has the 11th-worst HR/9 among MLB starters this year and the 25th-worst HR/FB.
Caminero is on a tear and is slugging 80 points better at home than on the road. What a price!
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Rays.TV
- HR picks: 38-139, -13.46 units
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