Thursday is a bad night to be a folding table, but a great one for football fans, with the Buffalo Bills opening their brand-new stadium against the visiting Detroit Lions.
My Lions vs. Bills prop picks have plenty of superstars to choose from, and I narrow it down to these NFL picks for Sept. 17. Our Joe Osborne breaks down the game lines with his Lions vs. Bills prediction for Thursday Night Football.
Best Lions vs Bills props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Amon-Ra St. Brown – Yes 7+ receptions |
56% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs – Yes 30+ receiving yards |
49% |
 James Cook – Yes 1+ touchdown |
55% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Amon-Ra St. Brown – Yes 7+ receptions
The Detroit Lions’ WR1 had a busy Week 1, drawing 14 targets for 10 catches and 67 yards, plus two touchdowns, against New Orleans.
Amon-Ra St. Brown could see similar action on Thursday, given the matchup and issues on the Detroit offensive line.
Heading into Week 2, the Lions have three starters on the injury report for an already thin protection unit. That doesn’t bode well, considering the Buffalo Bills pass rush conjured up a pressure rate of 31% vs. Houston and landed three sacks and six QB hits.
St. Brown is Jared Goff’s go-to under duress, finding him for quick hits when pressure comes, and the Lions slot receiver faces a Bills secondary that’s struggled to track slot targets in the past.
Buffalo gave up a collective 82 receiving yards on four receptions to the Texans’ slot receivers in Week 1.
Brown is also fantastic against zone coverage, rating out among the best WRs at PFF, and could see plenty of zone if the Bills' new defensive coordinator, Jim Leonhard, sticks with his Week 1 schemes.
Brown’s Week 2 projections call for seven catches, with some models flirting with eight receptions.
Prop pick #2: Jahmyr Gibbs – Yes 30+ receiving yards
Jahmyr Gibbs was involved in 74% of the Lions' snaps in Week 1, finishing the day with 29 carries but also catching all five passes his way for 30 yards.
Much like St. Brown, Gibbs will be a checkdown option when the Bills turn up the heat. Goff won’t always have time for deeper plays to develop, and Gibbs is the perfect release valve.
But we also saw some designed passes to find Gibbs in space in Week 1, with the RB chipping off the edge then catching the ball underneath for YAC. The Bills allowed Houston 114 yards after the catch last Sunday (10th most in Week 1).
His TNF forecasts come in north of 30 yards, with some closer to 40 yards receiving. My number sits at 35 receiving yards. I’d trade this prop up to 53%.
Prop pick #3: James Cook – Yes 1+ touchdown
Anytime you take a James Cook touchdown prop, you’re begging Bills QB Josh Allen not to “vulture” Cook’s red zone carries.
Just look at Week 1. Allen rushes for two TDs, and Cook goes scoreless.
All in all, it was a quiet opener for Cook in what turned into a shootout in Houston. He carried the ball only 13 times and was targeted on four passes, catching three. Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael addressed that lack of involvement.
“I think any time you can get ball in James Cook’s hands, it’s a great thing,” Carmichael told the media. “The opportunities to get the ball in his hands will be important, going forward.”
OK, Pete. We’re trusting you here. Touchdown projections give Cook between a 60% and 77% shot at finding paydirt at new Highmark, so we’ll gladly jump on this market at 55%.
- Prop picks: 5-4, +1.57 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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