The Boston Red Sox sit as slight 56% favorites tonight as they take on the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field, with first pitch scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET.
My Red Sox vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks are backing Boston down in Arlington on the strength of Sonny Gray's recent form.
Who will win Red Sox vs Rangers today: Red Sox moneyline
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I'd play this up to 60%.
The Boston Red Sox have the more stable pitching profile here behind Sonny Gray. The right-hander owns a 2.40 FIP across his last two outings without allowing a single home run. Gray has also shown solid command during that span, while the Texas Rangers have a 101 wRC+ over the last week with a poor .106 ISO.
Texas, meanwhile, sends reliever Tyler Alexander to the mound. He's been decent lately, but this Rangers bullpen as a whole has struggled, posting a 5.01 FIP over its previous 23 innings while allowing 1.57 HR/9.
Boston isn't tearing the cover off the ball, but this Texas bullpen isn't in good form. The visitors have the pitching advantage behind Gray.
COVERS INTEL: Sonny Gray has traveled well this season, posting a solid 3.50 FIP. At home, his FIP sits at 3.41. 
Red Sox vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5
Play up to 55%.
Boston's offense isn't as efficient on the road, and while the Texas relief corps hasn't had much success lately, the Red Sox lineup owns just a .119 ISO over the last week.
The Red Sox bullpen also strengthens the Under case once Gray exits in Arlington. The relief corps owns a 2.92 FIP over its last 16 2/3 innings without allowing a single home run.
Neither offense is thriving right now, and I don't see enough firepower on either side to expect a shootout. Take the Under.
Red Sox vs Rangers home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu
Play this up to 20%.
Wilyer Abreu's numbers are appealing for a home run tonight. He owns a 50% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate over the last week while also putting 50% of his contact in the air.
That's important against a Rangers bullpen that's been vulnerable to the long ball, while allowing a 41.3% fly-ball rate over the last seven days. Abreu has also homered once in his previous six contests, and the underlying metrics suggest another one could be coming soon.
- ML/RL picks: 72-80, -17.51 units
- Over/Under picks: 81-67, +2.38 units
Red Sox vs Rangers weather
The roof will be closed tonight at Globe Life Field.
Red Sox vs Rangers odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 56% | Rangers 43%
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (43%) | Rangers +1.5 (58%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)
Red Sox vs Rangers trend
The Red Sox have cashed the moneyline in 23 of their last 35 road games for +9.95 units and a 22% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rangers.
How to watch Red Sox vs Rangers and game info
| Location | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Thursday, September 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, Rangers Sports Network |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (17-5, 2.76 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Tyler Alexander (5-2, 3.38 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Rangers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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