My MLB moneyline predictions for this decent-sized Thursday slate, which features plenty of heavy favorites, are anchored by the Tampa Bay Rays. However, there are still some value opportunities to attack.
I’ve broken down the full board to determine which favorites are worth laying the juice on, and where bettors should think twice before paying the premium.
Before we dive in, check out all our MLB picks for September 17.
MLB moneyline picks for September 17
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Brewersvs  Pirates |
43% |
 Dodgersvs  Reds |
60% |
 A'svs  Rays |
72% |
 Padresvs  Rockies |
64% |
 Royalsvs  Astros |
58% |
 Philliesvs  Mets |
45% |
 Tigersvs  White Sox |
48% |
 Red Soxvs  Rangers |
54% |
 Twinsvs  Angels |
50% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 17.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 17
Brewers vs Pirates: Pirates
Pirates win probability: 42%
Kyle Harrison enters Thursday with a 20.86 ERA, 10.76 xERA, and 3.96 WHIP over his last three outings. Over his last five, he still carries a 9.35 ERA. However, the Pirates bats were pretty lively last night, with some of their heavy hitters going deep.
If Harrison is struggling this much, they should be able to tee off on him.
Dodgers vs Reds: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 60%
Brady Singer gets the start this afternoon for the Reds and has been brutal in his last three outings. Things should not improve later this evening as he draws a hot Dodgers lineup.
During that span, he owns a 12.15 ERA and 2.48 WHIP, while allowing over a 52% hard-hit rate and a nearly 15% barrel rate. The Dodgers should take care of business even with Landon Knack on the bump.
A's vs Rays: Rays
Rays win probability: 72%
The Rays are such a pricey favorite for a reason. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen has been pure nails all season long, owning a 2.80 ERA, 2.87 xERA, and just a 0.91 WHIP.
The A's bats are ice cold, while the best hitters on the Rays are heating up as the season comes to an end. It is the Rays or nothing here.
Padres vs Rockies: Padres
Padres win probability: 64%
Ahh yes, time to fade yet another Rockies starting pitcher, who owns a 5.55 ERA on the year and a 7.47 ERA at home. No chance we are backing Tanner Gordon to be able to hold down the red-hot Padres bats, especially at Coors.
The Padres own a 154 wRC+, .387 wOBA, and a sub-.900 OPS over their last six games.
Royals vs Astros: Astros
Astros win probability: 58%
Royals right-hander Seth Lugo has been struggling a ton over his last five outings, posting a 7.30 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP. With his recent struggles, this matchup is Astros or nothing.
Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez looks to be heating up once again after having a very successful series against the Royals.
With Lugo's struggles, I have no trust in Kansas City.
Phillies vs Mets: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 45%
I miss when Aaron Nola was an auto-fade, but he has been lights out over his last five starts, posting a sub-2.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
The Phillies have gone cold offensively over their last few games, but Nolan McLean's nearly 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts is concerning, so give me the 'dog here.
Tigers vs White Sox: Tigers
Tigers win probability: 48%
The White Sox are so cold right now, you have to fade them!
Getting the Tigers as a dog in this spot is amazing. The White Sox have Erick Fedde on the mound this evening, and have posted a 26% strikeout rate, .132 ISO, and just a 6.6% barrel rate over their last six games. The Tigers during that stretch have a near-150 wRC+, .380 wOBA, and .866 OPS.
Tigers or pass.
Red Sox vs Rangers: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 55%
Full fade on Cody Bradford, who enters today sporting a 7.24 ERA, 5.12 xERA, and 1.83 WHIP across his last three starts. The Red Sox send out Sonny Gray, who has maintained a 2.62 road ERA this season.
Neither lineup has been hitting the ball very well over its last 12 games, so trust the better pitcher in this spot.
Twins vs Angels: Angels
Angels win probability: 50%
The Angels have not been too hot at the dish over their last 12 games, but the Twins are far colder, as they own a 76 wRC+, .279 wOBA, and .130 ISO during that stretch.
Taj Bradley has been great for Minnesota, but Walbert Urena has been just as good for the Angels, as both starters sport sub-2.60 ERAs over their last three outings.
Minnesota has a pretty brutal bullpen, which the Angels could exploit after Bradley is taken out, so I like the hometown team here.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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