The last time I was here, it was a clean 3-0 sweep for +3.58 units. I love finding edges and angles on MLB player props, and MLB pitcher props are the best place to start.
Kyle Leahy and Chase Burns are both on three-inning ceilings and could be even shorter. Their plus-money K price are absolute Under hits, while Dylan Cease's velocity drop is a cause for concern for anyone betting his Overs today.
These are my favorite strikeout and pitcher props for Friday, Sept.18.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Leahy |
Under 2.5 strikeouts | +124 |
 Chase Burns |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | +116 |
 Dylan Cease |
Under 17.5 outs | +123 |
Strikeout prop: Kyle Leahy Under 2.5 strikeouts (+124)
I'm playing this down to -110 today.
Kyle Leahy is getting throttled back as a starter and threw just 38 pitches in his last start, down from 55 in the start before that. He's at career-highs in innings pitched, and there's no reason to push him late in September.
He's not a K-per-inning pitcher, and getting three innings is a ceiling for him.
The projections are calling for 1.31 Ks, but the pitch count is estimated at 24 pitches, which might be low but is certainly in the range of outcomes. Even at 35 pitches, this projects for 1.91 total Ks, which is a smash at plus-money.
This should move quickly today and will likely be the last time we see a Leahy K prop. These are the beautiful angles and edges you can find in September's soft markets.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Nationals.TV
Strikeout prop: Chase Burns Under 3.5 strikeouts (+116)
This is the same angle as Leahy, but there is some worry about Chase Burns' K potential. The leash just isn't there.
Burns looks to be on a three-inning cap. He's thrown nine outs in back-to-back starts as he is at 151 innings, which is more than 100 over last season. Now, he's gone Over this number in those abbreviated starts, but with fewer than three innings on the block today, getting four of nine outs via the K is something I'm betting against at even money or better.
The Cubs are the ninth-hardest team to strike out in the second half this year, and they saw him three starts ago when 41% of his outs came via the K.
I have this a little better than a coin flip, but it will be a tough one to watch. These are the angles that September baseball presents to us.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Marquee Sports Network
Pitcher out prop: Dylan Cease Under 17.5 outs (+124)
I'm surprised the market is still at 17.5 for Dylan Cease, who has gone 15 outs in back-to-back starts and is dealing with some velocity drop late in the season.
The right-hander averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball this year but was down to 94.9 mph in his last start. His highest average in any game this year was 98.6 mph in his first start. He has not averaged more than 96.2 mph on his four-seam since his first start after the break.
It's a drop in velo across the board for his full arsenal, and he's aware of it, as the media has been asking about it.
His spin rate has also taken a dip in August and September compared to the first half.
It's a plus-money price, and the fair number here is -115, as I'm not sure the projections are capturing the diminishing velocity and spin rate.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rangers Sports Network
- Prop picks: 38-33, +7.87 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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