The Milwaukee Brewers are -145 favorites to win their fifth consecutive game tonight at American Family Field.
Taking on an inexperienced arm with strong regression signals, my Mets vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks back Milwaukee to extend their streak to six on July 21.
Who will win Mets vs Brewers today: Brewers (-145)
Zac Thornton is a talented young lefty, but we’ve seen real red flags during his cup of coffee in the big leagues.
Topping the list is an almost shocking 6.4% soft contact rate, which is lowest among all of today’s starting pitchers.
The Milwaukee Brewers are a hit-for-contact lineup, and Thornton’s inability to limit hard-hit balls is likely to be exploited.
Brandon Sproat has issues of his own, but will benefit from a Top 5 bullpen in ERA, FIP, and xFIP backing him up.
Bet Milwaukee to -155.
COVERS INTEL: Thornton's xERA (3.97) is well above his actual ERA (2.60), a sign he's not pitching as well as the results suggest. 
Mets vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-120)
I don’t see the path to fireworks in this game.
Milwaukee has not hit for power against lefties at all, sitting 26th in SLG and 28th in ISO this season. Thornton’s poor contact profile should prop them up, but this isn’t about to turn into a home run derby.
Sproat has held his own against poor offenses, posting a 3.43 ERA over eight starts when facing Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. righties.
If he can survive five innings and get to the bullpen, it’ll be tough for the New York Mets to score.
Play the Under to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 61-49, +1.60 units
- Over/Under bets: 60-45-5, +7.34 units
Mets vs Brewers weather
Mets vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Mets +125 | Brewers -145
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)
Mets vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee has hit the moneyline in 27 of their last 40 home games (+8.25 units, 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers.
How to watch Mets vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Tuesday, July 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Brewers.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | Zac Thornton (0-1, 2.60 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Brandon Sproat (3-4, 5.16 ERA) |
Mets vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
