Marlins vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Today's MLB Game

Mike DiStefano - Contributor at Covers.com
Mike DiStefano • Betting Analyst 14+ years betting experience
Updated: May 25, 2026 , 02:13 PM ET • 4 min read

Marlins right-hander Janson Junk is in a funk, and Jesus Sanchez will make him pay for the Blue Jays tonight.

MLB

Match starts: 3 hrs
MIA
29 %
TOR
71 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Jesus Sanchez o0.5  Total Hits (-145) Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total Hits (-145)
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Jesus Sanchez Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jesus Sanchez (12) hits a double against the Pittsburgh Pirates

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jesus Sanchez has been hitting the ball well, and with Janson Junk on the mound for the Miami Marlins, the matchup should favor the slugger to keep his bat hot tonight.

Read on to see why in my Marlins vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks on Monday, May 25. 

Marlins vs Blue Jays predictions

Marlins vs Blue Jays best bet: Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits (-145)

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jesus Sanchez has been red-hot, eclipsing his hits total in 10 of his last 12 games, posting a .433 batting average in this stretch.

With a little extra motivation, taking on a Miami Marlins team that traded him last season, I expect him to keep his hot streak alive, especially with Janson Junk on the mound. 

Junk has struggled mightily over his last three starts, giving up 19 runs on 25 hits. This can be chalked up to a pedestrian fastball that ranks in the 45th percentile in velocity, as well as a putrid 18.7% whiff rate that ranks in the ninth percentile.

The righty regularly gets squared up, and Sanchez is batting just under .300 against right-handers.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Sanchez ranks in the 92nd percentile in expected batting average this season.

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Marlins vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Trey Yesavage has gone Over tonight’s 5.5 strikeout total in four straight starts, averaging 6.5 per. I expect him to do it again against a team with a 33% strikeout rate against the splitter, Yesavage’s put-away pitch.  

Overall, the Jays will win by multiple runs. There’s a lot of juice in the Jays’ moneyline, but the run line still has value as they’ve covered it in four of their last five victories.

Additionally, the pitching matchup should allow Toronto to keep Miami at bay while putting up offense against Junk.

Marlins vs Blue Jays SGP

  • Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
  • Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
  • Blue Jays -1.5
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Marlins vs Blue Jays home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+450)

The Jays offense has picked up recently, but we’re still waiting on consistent power, so we’ll make this a half-unit wager. 

Junk has surrendered six home runs over his last four starts and gives up fairly hard contact to lefties, who have 17 extra-base hits off him for a .888 opponents' OPS. 

The lefty in the Jays lineup I’m banking on to homer tonight is Daulton Varsho, who owns a 59% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer, which Junk throws most often to lefties.

2026 Transparency record
  • Best bets: 24-27, +1.55 units
  • SGPs: 10-41, -0.6 units
  • HR picks: 8-41, +1.65 units

Marlins vs Blue Jays odds

  • Moneyline: Miami +140 | Toronto -160
  • Run line: Miami +1.5 (-150) | Toronto -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Marlins vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 68% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Marlins vs Blue Jays and game info

Location Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date Monday, May 25, 2026
First pitch 7:07 p.m. ET
TV Marlins.TV, Sportsnet 1
Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk
(2-5, 5.07 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage
(2-1, 1.07 ERA)

Marlins vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Marlins vs Blue Jays weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Mike DiStefano - Covers
Betting Analyst

Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN's flagship radio/tv show "OverDrive" as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.

A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.

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