MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 11, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT Sat, Jul 11 • 12:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds logo
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Bryan Reynolds's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The #3 ballpark in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (84%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
Total RBIs
Jake Bauers logo
Jake Bauers o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Jake Bauers ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Bauers is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. The #3 ballpark in the game for boosting BABIP to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (84%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Braxton Ashcraft throws from, Jake Bauers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Sat, Jul 11 • 2:10 PM ET
6 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler logo
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. The #7 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Lawrence Butler will hold the platoon advantage over Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. Lawrence Butler has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
Tyler Soderstrom logo
Tyler Soderstrom o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Tyler Soderstrom ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Tyler Soderstrom is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #7 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Guaranteed Rate Field.. Tyler Soderstrom will hold the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde today.. Tyler Soderstrom has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
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Los Angeles Angels logo LAA @ Minnesota Twins logo MIN Sat, Jul 11 • 2:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Josh Lowe logo
Josh Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This year, Josh Lowe has been pinch hit for in 18% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Target Field grades out as the #22 stadium in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, Target Field's CF dimensions are the 10th-deepest.. In the league, the 5th-highest average fence height are at Target Field.. Josh Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Kody Clemens logo
Kody Clemens o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Kody Clemens ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level on the slate today at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Kody Clemens will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Johnson today... and the cherry on top, Johnson has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Kody Clemens will hold that advantage in today's game.
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Colorado Rockies logo COL @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Sat, Jul 11 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.43
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.. Ezequiel Tovar's launch angle lately (35° in the past week's worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 17.3° seasonal angle.. Despite posting a .252 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ezequiel Tovar has had bad variance on his side given the .047 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.. In notching a .271 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ezequiel Tovar has performed in the 77th percentile.
Total RBIs
TJ Rumfield logo
TJ Rumfield o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.49
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
T.J. Rumfield is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11-mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.. T.J. Rumfield will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Mahle in today's game.. T.J. Rumfield pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.1°, T.J. Rumfield has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23.5° angle over the last 7 days.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Sat, Jul 11 • 4:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jose Caballero logo
Jose Caballero u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.92
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jose Caballero is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Nationals Park as the 5th-worst venue in the majors for RHB base hits.. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Miles Mikolas will have the handedness advantage over Jose Caballero in today's game.. Jose Caballero will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.
Total Bases
Luis Garcia Jr. logo
Luis Garcia Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The 10th-shallowest RF fences among all major league parks are found in Nationals Park.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most suitable for hitting on the schedule today.. Luis Garcia Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cam Schlitter today.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Sat, Jul 11 • 4:10 PM ET
2 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Otto Lopez logo
Otto Lopez o1.5 Total Bases (+127)
Projection 1.71
Best Odds
Pick made: 32 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Hits
Kahlil Watson logo
Kahlil Watson u0.5 Total Hits (+105)
Projection 0.53
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kahlil Watson in the 12th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Kahlil Watson is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks LoanDepot Park as the 7th-worst park in MLB for LHB batting average.. In the league, LoanDepot Park's RF fences are the 4th-deepest.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which often leads to worse offense.
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Seattle Mariners logo SEA @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Sat, Jul 11 • 4:10 PM ET
3 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Dominic Canzone logo
Dominic Canzone u1.5 Total Bases (-183)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Tropicana Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Dominic Canzone in today's matchup.
Total Home Runs
Randy Arozarena logo
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total Home Runs (+588)
Projection 0.15
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 4th-best field in the league for right-handed home runs.. Among all major league parks, Tropicana Field's left field fences are the 3rd-shallowest.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Sat, Jul 11 • 6:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Derek Hill logo
Derek Hill o0.5 Total Hits (+102)
Projection 0.88
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill as the 19th-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Trea Turner logo
Trea Turner o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.9
Best Odds
Pick made: 37 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 16th-best batter in MLB when estimating his batting average talent.. Trea Turner is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest fences among all major league parks.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Kansas City Royals logo KC @ Baltimore Orioles logo BAL Sat, Jul 11 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Salvador Perez logo
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #10 field in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.
Total Bases
Samuel Basallo logo
Samuel Basallo o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Samuel Basallo ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oriole Park at Camden Yards profiles as the #10 stadium in MLB for overall left-handed offense, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Oriole Park at Camden Yards's RF fences are the shallowest.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 3rd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Samuel Basallo will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.
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Houston Astros logo HOU @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Sat, Jul 11 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Brice Matthews logo
Brice Matthews o1.5 Total Bases (+290)
Projection 1.15
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field has the 7th-lowest average fence height.
Total Bases
LaMonte Wade Jr. logo
LaMonte Wade Jr. u1.5 Total Bases (-270)
Projection 0.68
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 15th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. LaMonte Wade Jr. is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Globe Life Field as the worst field in the league for run-scoring.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-deepest centerfield fences in the majors.. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.
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Chicago Cubs logo CHC @ Cincinnati Reds logo CIN Sat, Jul 11 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Michael Busch logo
Michael Busch o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Great American Ball Park projects as the #1 stadium in MLB for lefty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Great American Ball Park's RF fences are the 8th-shallowest.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki logo
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (-106)
Projection 2.2
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #1 park in the game for boosting home runs to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.. In Major League Baseball, Great American Ball Park's LF dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.. Seiya Suzuki will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Lodolo today.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Sat, Jul 11 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera logo
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 39 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Extreme flyball bats like Ivan Herrera are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Reynaldo Lopez.
Total Bases
Lars Nootbaar logo
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.54
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report predicts for the 2nd-most suitable hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Hitting from the opposite that Reynaldo Lopez throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge in today's game.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ San Diego Padres logo SD Sat, Jul 11 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Daulton Varsho logo
Daulton Varsho o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.6
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Daulton Varsho is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an edge in today's matchup.. Using Statcast data, Daulton Varsho is in the 79th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .332.. Using Statcast metrics, Daulton Varsho ranks in the 99th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 40.300.
Total Bases
Xander Bogaerts logo
Xander Bogaerts o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.5
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Xander Bogaerts's batting average ability is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Petco Park's centerfield dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Xander Bogaerts will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD Sat, Jul 11 • 9:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Shohei Ohtani logo
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 Total Bases (-122)
Projection 2.51
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Shohei Ohtani projects as the 4th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shohei Ohtani is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Dodger Stadium projects as the #2 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the shortest fences in the majors.. Shohei Ohtani will have the handedness advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Dalton Rushing logo
Dalton Rushing u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.78
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dalton Rushing is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup.. Dalton Rushing pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. In the past two weeks, Dalton Rushing's 10.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.6%.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dalton Rushing's true offensive talent to be a .324, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .037 gap between that mark and his actual .361 wOBA.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Fri, Jul 17 • 1:35 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130)
Projection 2.39
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 months ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 4th-best field in MLB for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's LF dimensions are the shallowest.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among every team today.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 15 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 19 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: 29 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 22 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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Run lines are what other sports like football and basketball refer to as point spreads. Run lines even the odds between two teams, offering bettors as close to an even matchup as possible. Our analysts research vital stats, pitching matchups, injuries, and more to give you the best possible edge before making your MLB run line bets.

Free MLB Totals Picks

Covers’ analysts make MLB Over/Under picks throughout the baseball season. Betting on MLB Over/Unders means choosing whether you think the combined total runs scored in a game will be Over or Under a specific run total set by oddsmakers.

Free MLB Moneyline Picks

Betting on the MLB moneyline means picking which team will win a game outright. While less common than picking the run line or even a prop, our analysts will always look for high-value baseball moneyline picks if they feel it’s the best bet.

Free MLB Prop Picks

There’s always value in MLB props. Our team scours through game, team, and player props to try and find opportunity and value. From strikeouts to home runs, expect well-researched MLB prop picks from Covers.

MLB Consensus Picks

Covers’ consensus MLB picks show you the odds and predictions that our vibrant community of bettors and players are making. Try our picks on with our free MLB contests for a chance at prizes and more.

Best Baseball Betting Sites

If you’re ready to bet on MLB picks, you first need to find the right sportsbook. The best MLB betting sites offer secure banking, best odds, bonuses, and reliable customer service.

More Free Picks

Covers’ staff of sports betting fans also offers a wide array of free picks for the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA basketball, and NCAA football.

MLB Free Picks FAQs

When do we release our MLB picks?

Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.

What kinds of MLB picks do we make?

Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.