Friday Junior has arrived! It is time to get down and dirty looking for some guys to go yard on this slightly smaller slate.
Here are my favorite MLB home run props for today's slate, headlined by Boston Red Sox slugger Wilyer Abreu and Kansas City Royals sophomore Jac Caglianone.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 6.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jake Bauers |
+250 |
 Wilyer Abreu |
+276 |
 Jac Caglianone |
+344 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +7049 |
Home run prediction: Jake Bauers (+344)
A lot of Milwaukee Brewers bats find themselves in a great matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates right hander Braxton Ashcraft, but only one guy really stood out to me. First baseman Jake Bauers.
The 30-year-old has been on fire as of late, posting a .371 BA, .464 wOBA, .629 SLG and 1.079 OPS over his last 10 games. During that stretch, Bauers also owns a 198 wRC+, 53.3% hard hit rate and 28.6% HR/FB rate.
Ashcraft has allowed plenty of hard contact and elevated baseballs to left-handed hitters on the road this season. The last 60 lefties he has faced have posted a .351 xBA, .584 xSLG and .377 xwOBA against him.
With Bauers covering more than 61% of Ashcraft's pitch mix, I think he's a great look to leave the yard. I'd be comfortable taking this prop down to +300.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, SNP
Home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+250)
I'm fully expecting the Boston Red Sox and Wilyer Abreu to give Luis Castillo a warm welcome in his Chicago White Sox debut this evening. By that, I mean they're going to torch him, with Abreu leading the charge.
The Red Sox outfielder enters with an elite Batters-Box rating, covering nearly 91% of Castillo's pitch mix. On the other side, Castillo owns the third-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season dataset.
Over his last 10 games, Abreu owns a .667 SLG, 1.008 OPS and 173 wRC+. During that stretch, he has posted a 16.7% barrel rate while elevating the baseball 66.7% of the time.
Castillo has struggled tremendously against left-handed hitters. Most recently, the last 60 lefties he has faced have produced a 14.6% barrel rate, 70.8% elevation rate, .406 ISO, .698 xSLG, and .333 xwOBA against him.
I would try to snag this prop around +250. I'd hate to pay anything shorter than that for Abreu this evening.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, NESN
Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (+276)
Kansas City Royals young slugger Jac Caglianone finds himself in a mouth-watering matchup this evening against Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. Not only does the big fella own an elite Batters-Box rating, but he also covers nearly 100% of Ober's pitch repertoire. On top of that, through 21 elite Batters-Box ratings this season, Caglianone has left the yard in nearly 30% of those games.
So far this season, left-handed hitters on the road have been Ober's biggest kryptonite, batting .322 with a .586 SLG and .407 wOBA. They are also generating a 35.6% hard hit rate and a 71.4% elevation rate against him.
The Royals' future star has been a tad cold over his last few games, but his expected batting average suggests positive regression could be on the way, as he continues to generate plenty of hard contact.
I'd be comfortable taking this prop down to +250.
- Time:7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
- HR picks: 90-338, +3.7 units
Best home run combo for August 6
| Wilyer Abreu |
Trade Now +7049 |
| Jac Caglianone |
|
| Jake Bauers |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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