Happy Monday!
A new week is here, and I'm ready to kick it off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions from tonight's MLB slate, highlighted by Rafael Devers and James Wood.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for August 3.
MLB home run props for today
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Rafael Devers
James Wood
Home run prediction: Rafael Devers (+344)
With Cal Quantrill expected to take the mound for the Texas Rangers this evening, it sets up San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers for a big night at the plate.
The big fella is the third-highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box tonight, covering nearly 100% of Quantrill's pitch mix. Across 261 elite ratings over the last three seasons, Devers has homered 22.22% of the time.
Devers has also been seeing the ball extremely well lately, posting a .343 batting average, .455 wOBA, and .629 SLG, while generating a 53.3% hard hit rate and 10% barrel rate over his last few games.
Quantrill has been getting hit hard by left-handed batters. The last 30 lefties he's faced have produced a .340 xBA, .718 xSLG, and .450 xwOBA, along with a 40% hard hit rate and 10% barrel rate.
With the way Devers is swinging it right now, whoever takes the mound is in for a tough night, especially if it's Quantrill. Our Quinn Allen is backing San Francisco with his Giants vs. Rangers predictions tonight.
I wouldn't play this below +300.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Home run prediction: James Wood (+300)
I'm very high on the Washington Nationals tonight, which is why I'll be targeting the left-handed bats at the top of their lineup. Both James Wood and CJ Abrams find themselves in excellent spots against Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola.
Nola has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters. Over the last 30 lefties he's faced, he's allowed a 70.8% hard hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and a 75% elevation rate. Those hitters have also posted a .440 xBA, .817 xSLG, and .509 xwOBA.
Wood enters Monday with the highest matchup rating on Batters-Box, while covering the majority of Nola's pitch mix. He's also been squaring the ball up consistently over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, posting a .500 SLG and .867 OPS while generating plenty of hard contact and barrels.
I would do my best to grab Wood at +300 or better to leave the yard.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, NBCS-Philadelphia
- HR picks: 90-331, +5.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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