The weekend is here! Let's kick it off by cashing some nukes!
Here are my favorite MLB home run props and predictions from tonight's schedule, featuring Jac Caglianone and Yordan Alvarez.
Below, I'll explain why Alvarez is an appealing pick against the Mariners in Houston with my MLB picks on Friday, Aug. 14.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
+276 |
 Jac Caglianone |
+307 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
+291 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +5884 |
Home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+276)
Saying someone is "due" is so overused in this space, but Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez has not hit a home run since July 28th. Yes, 17 days ago. The big fella has gone into a bit of a slump, but has still been generating quality contact. Over his last five games, he has a 50% hard-hit rate and 21.4% barrel rate.
Alvarez enters Friday with the number one matchup rating on Batters-Box, where he has left the yard nearly 37% of the time in 19 home games this season. Overall, through 41 elite ratings in 2026, he has homered in 26.83% of those games.
Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby has allowed 2.57 HR/9 to his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, while those hitters are elevating the baseball at nearly a 78% clip.
Again, is anyone ever due for anything? Nope, but this looks like a pretty good spot for Alvarez.
Playable to +250.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, SEAM
Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (+307)
We are kicking off our Friday by backing the Italian Stallion from Kansas City, Mr. Jac Caglianone, who finds himself in a delectable spot against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
The Kansas City Royals slugger enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current-season dataset. He not only covers 100% of Rodriguez's pitch mix, but he has also left the yard on 30.43% of his 23 elite ratings this season.
Caglianone has been seeing the ball extremely well over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, owning a .333 BA, .667 SLG and 1.034 OPS while producing a 58% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate. On top of that, over his last five games, he is generating nearly a 60% hard-hit rate and an 18% barrel rate.
With how poorly Rodriguez has been against left-handed hitters this season, the big fella is in a great spot to go deep tonight on the road. Take this down to +275 at the most.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, ABTV
Home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+291)
This evening, we get to back the great one, Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, who draws Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Robert Gasser. The 27-year-old starter enters today with the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box, while Ohtani owns the highest matchup rating, covering 100% of his entire arsenal.
Across 335 elite ratings over the last three seasons, the reigning NL MVP has left the yard in nearly 30% of those games.
Ohtani has done a great job handling left-handed pitching this season. In his last 30 at-bats against a lefty, he sports a .429 BA, .857 SLG and 1.324 OPS, while making 47.6% hard contact and posting a 23.8% barrel rate.
Gasser has held down left-handed hitters pretty well this season, but the last 60 he has faced still own a .332 xBA and .511 xSLG.
Take this down to +250.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, BREW
- HR picks: 99-351, +10.3 units
Best home run combo for Aug. 14
| Jac Caglianone |
Trade Now +5884 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
|
| Yordan Alvarez |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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