The weekend is here! Let's kick it off by cashing some nukes!
Here are my favorite MLB home run props and predictions from tonight's schedule, featuring Jac Caglianone and Yordan Alvarez.
Below, I'll explain why Alvarez is an appealing pick against the Mariners in Houston with my MLB picks on Friday, Aug. 14.
MLB home run props for today
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Yordan Alvarez
Jac Caglianone 
Home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+276)
Saying someone is "due" is so overused in this space, but Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez has not hit a home run since July 28th. Yes, 17 days ago. The big fella has gone into a bit of a slump, but has still been generating quality contact. Over his last five games, he has a 50% hard-hit rate and 21.4% barrel rate.
Alvarez enters Friday with the number one matchup rating on Batters-Box, where he has left the yard nearly 37% of the time in 19 home games this season. Overall, through 41 elite ratings in 2026, he has homered in 26.83% of those games.
Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby has allowed 2.57 HR/9 to his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, while those hitters are elevating the baseball at nearly a 78% clip.
Again, is anyone ever due for anything? Nope, but this looks like a pretty good spot for Alvarez.
Playable to +250.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, SEAM
Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (+307)
We are kicking off our Friday by backing the Italian Stallion from Kansas City, Mr. Jac Caglianone, who finds himself in a delectable spot against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
The Kansas City Royals slugger enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current-season dataset. He not only covers 100% of Rodriguez's pitch mix, but he has also left the yard on 30.43% of his 23 elite ratings this season.
Caglianone has been seeing the ball extremely well over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, owning a .333 BA, .667 SLG and 1.034 OPS while producing a 58% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate. On top of that, over his last five games, he is generating nearly a 60% hard-hit rate and an 18% barrel rate.
With how poorly Rodriguez has been against left-handed hitters this season, the big fella is in a great spot to go deep tonight on the road. Take this down to +275 at the most.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, ABTV
- HR picks: 99-351, +10.3 units
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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