The weekend is here!
Let's kick it off by cashing a few home run plays. While you're at it, be sure to check out today's MLB player props and my favorite home run looks, headlined by James Wood.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for July 31.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 James Wood |
+276 |
 Rafael Devers |
+388 |
 Randy Arozarena |
+344 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +8128 |
Home run prediction: James Wood (+276)
One of my favorite hitters to back for a home run tonight is Washington Nationals big fella James Wood. The Nationals slugger enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, covering 93.8% of Bryce Elder's subpar pitch mix.
Wood has also been seeing the ball extremely well lately, posting a .542 SLG, .942 OPS, 50% hard hit rate, and 15% barrel rate across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
The Atlanta Braves starter has struggled against left-handed hitters all season, and those issues have only gotten worse recently.
Over the last 60 lefties he has faced, they own a .431 xBA, .833 xSLG, and .395 xwOBA while generating a 47.5% hard hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 72.5% elevation rate.
Wood has not left the yard over his last six elite-rated appearances, which feels like long enough for the big fella to snap that streak in a matchup this favorable.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Nationals.TV
Home run prediction: Rafael Devers (+388)
The number one rated hitter on Batters-Box today is San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers, who is making his 260th elite rated appearance over the last three seasons. Across the previous 259, he has gone yard 22.39% of the time.
This evening, Devers draws a matchup against San Diego Padres right-hander Germán Márquez. He covers just over 50% of Márquez's pitch mix, though that number is held down by Márquez's heavy reliance on the knuckle curve, a pitch he throws nearly 40% of the time.
Devers has seen that offering in just seven at-bats this season, creating a limited sample. Against the rest of Márquez's arsenal, however, the Giants slugger owns outstanding expected numbers.
Márquez has struggled all season against left-handed hitters. Across the last 60 he has faced, they have produced over a 55% hard hit rate, a 12% barrel rate, and a 66.7% elevation rate while posting a .323 xBA, .674 xSLG, and .396 xwOBA.
With the way Devers has been swinging the bat lately, and how much Márquez has struggled against lefties, this feels like an excellent spot for the big fella to leave the yard.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
Home run prediction: Randy Arozarena (+344)
This evening, Seattle Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena finds himself in a feast spot against Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews.
The Twins starter has struggled all season, especially on the road, where he owns a 7.58 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while allowing a 43.7% hard hit rate and 15.13% barrel rate.
Right-handed hitters have also given Matthews problems recently. Over the last 60 righties he has faced, they have generated over a 40% hard hit rate and nearly a 13% barrel rate while posting a .347 xBA, .609 xSLG, and .314 ISO.
Arozarena, meanwhile, has been on a tear against right-handed pitching. Across his last 30 plate appearances, he owns a .520 SLG, .920 OPS, and .240 ISO while producing a 61.1% hard hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.
On top of that, the Mariners slugger earns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, where he also covers nearly 100% of Matthews' subpar pitch mix.
The way Arozarena is swinging the bat and how poorly Matthews has been playing feels like an excellent spot to back the Mariners at home tonight.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, Twins.TV
- HR picks: 90-324, +7.8 units
Best home run combo for July 31
| James Wood |
Trade Now +8128 |
| Rafael Devers |
|
| Randy Arozarena |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
