Let's kick off the second half of the MLB season on a high note!
These are my top looks to leave the yard this Friday evening, featuring Pete Crow-Armstrong showing value in the MLB player props.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong
Matt Olson 
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+232)
Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong finds himself in a mouthwatering spot in his first game back from the All-Star break, as he draws Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. PCA owns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, where he also covers 100% of Ober's pitch mix.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong posted a .366 BA, .714 SLG, 1.197 OPS, .347 ISO, and a 13.3% barrel rate.
Ober has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season, allowing them to elevate the hell out of the baseball while generating plenty of hard contact. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, they've produced a 44% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and an 81.3% elevation rate.
On top of that, they've posted a .336 xBA, .826 xSLG, and .346 xwOBA.
With that much elevation against Ober, Crow-Armstrong should be in line for extra bases, if not a nuke missile.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, MARQ
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+295)
I am currently foaming at the mouth over another pitcher who has been giving up a ton of elevation to left handed hitters, and Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson stands out in this matchup.
Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight, and he has struggled mightily against left-handed bats this season. He's allowed them to produce a 42% hard-hit rate, 16% barrel rate, and a 75.4% elevation rate. They also own a .504 xSLG and .390 xwOBA against him.
In a small sample of 42 left-handed hitters faced on the road, Quantrill has allowed a 69.2% fly-ball rate, 11.5% line-drive rate, and 30% hard-hit rate.
Prior to the break, Olson was swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball against right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 at-bats, he owns a .593 SLG, .860 OPS, .408 ISO, while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate.
We all know what Olson is capable of, and with Quantrill getting destroyed by left-handed hitters, I have to back the Braves star.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, CW33
- HR picks: 80-277, +12.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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